NuScale Power Plunges 5.47%—What’s Fueling the Volatility in a Nuclear Renaissance?

Summary
• NuScale Power (SMR) slumps 5.47% to $36.95, erasing a 15% intraday surge from a landmark TVA-ENTRA1 SMR deal.
• The stock trades between $36.76 and $39.00, with a 10.55% turnover rate and a dynamic PE of -166.31.
• Analysts raised price targets to $60 post-deal, but valuation skepticism and execution risks now weigh.
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NuScale’s sharp reversal underscores the high-stakes gamble on nuclear innovation. While the TVA-ENTRA1 partnership signals a historic 6GW SMR deployment, investors are recalibrating after a 250% YTD rally. The stock’s 52W high of $53.50 remains distant, but technicals and options activity hint at a pivotal inflection point.

Partnership Optimism Collides with Valuation Realism
NuScale’s 5.47% intraday drop reflects a tug-of-war between bullish catalysts and bearish fundamentals. The TVA-ENTRA1 agreement—a 6GW SMR deployment—initially drove a 15% surge, validating NuScale’s technology as a cornerstone of U.S. energy security. However, the stock’s $10B+ market cap, despite minimal revenue and operational losses, has triggered profit-taking. Analysts at Canaccord raised price targets to $60, but the lack of concrete timelines, cost details, and execution risks in the TVA deal have reignited skepticism. Meanwhile, Oklo (OKLO) and other SMR peers face similar challenges, amplifying sector-wide caution.

Engineering & Construction Sector Mixed as Oklo Drives Downside
The Engineering & Construction sector, where NuScale operates, saw mixed performance. Oklo (OKLO), a key SMR competitor, fell 1.38%, reflecting broader sector jitters. While NuScale’s TVA deal is a milestone, the sector’s focus on execution risks and capital intensity has dampened enthusiasm. Investors are scrutinizing NuScale’s ability to scale its NRC-certified design into operational reactors, a hurdle shared by peers like BWXT and Fluor (FLR).

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on NuScale’s Volatility
• 200-day average: 27.27 (well below current price)
• RSI: 56.77 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signals)
• MACD: -0.84 (bearish divergence from signal line -1.30)
• Bollinger Bands: 31.87–39.19 (price near lower band, suggesting oversold potential)
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NuScale’s technicals and options activity point to a volatile near-term outlook. The stock is testing its 30D support at $35.84 and 200D support at $16.51, with key resistance at the 52W high of $53.50. The 9/26 options expiry offers high-conviction plays:

1. SMR20250926P36 (Put, $36 strike, 9/26 expiry):
• IV: 92.71% (high volatility)
• Leverage ratio: 20.89% (moderate)
• Delta: -0.386 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0447 (modest time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0639 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: 13,972 (liquid)
This put option offers a 36.92% price change potential if NuScale breaks below $36. A 5% downside to $35.10 would yield a payoff of $0.90 per contract, or 2.49% of the strike price. Ideal for bearish bets on near-term profit-taking.

2. SMR20250926C36 (Call, $36 strike, 9/26 expiry):
• IV: 80.77% (reasonable)
• Leverage ratio: 13.67% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.622 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1653 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0729 (high responsiveness)
• Turnover: 102,797 (extremely liquid)
This call thrives on a rebound above $36. A 5% upside to $38.79 would yield a $2.79 payoff, or 7.75% of the strike price. Best for aggressive bulls expecting a bounce off key support.

Action Insight: Short-term volatility favors options over ETFs. Aggressive bulls may consider SMR20250926C36 into a break above $36.50, while bears should eye SMR20250926P36 if $35.50 breaks.

Backtest NuScale Power Stock Performance
Below is the interactive back-test report. (The visual module may take a second to load.)Key takeaways (non-visual):• Period tested: 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-16 • Total strategy return: ≈ 64.6 % (buy-&-hold SMR over same period ≈ ? for comparison). • Annualized return: ≈ 24.5 % • Max drawdown: ≈ 43.3 % • Average trade return: ≈ 10.4 % (wins avg 22.7 %, losses avg -20.3 %) • Sharpe ratio: 0.52 Let me know if you’d like deeper diagnostics (e.g., trade log, sensitivity to 10 % drops, stop-loss variations, etc.).

NuScale at a Crossroads: Execution or Extinction
NuScale’s 5.47% drop signals a critical juncture. While the TVA-ENTRA1 deal is a historic win, the stock’s valuation—trading at a 250% YTD gain despite minimal revenue—demands operational execution. Investors must watch for site selection progress and cost clarity in the coming months. The sector leader, Oklo (OKLO, -1.38%), highlights the risks of overhyped SMR tech. For NuScale, a sustained rebound above $39.00 would validate its $60 price target, but a breakdown below $35.50 could trigger a re-rating. Act now: Short-term options like SMR20250926P36 and C36 offer high-conviction plays, but long-term investors should wait for clearer execution milestones.