NuScale Power Plunges 4.8%, Can This Bearish Surge Be Stopped?

Summary
• NuScale Power (SMR) slumps to $35.51, down 4.8% from $37.30 close
• Intraday range spans $35.28 to $37.73 amid 5.49% turnover rate
• Options chain shows 2025-08-22 P33.5 put option surging 41.25% in price
• Sector news highlights Indonesia’s molten salt reactor approval and DOE fuel advancements, yet SMR faces sharp intraday reversal. With RSI at 20.4 and MACD -0.43, the stock’s technicals and options volatility suggest a critical inflection point.

Sector Optimism vs. SMR’s Selloff
NuScale Power’s 4.8% intraday plunge defies the nuclear sector’s upbeat narrative. While Indonesia’s Thorcon molten salt reactor approval and DOE’s advanced fuel pilot project signal long-term industry tailwinds, SMR’s sharp reversal suggests short-term profit-taking or sector rotation. The stock opened at $36.95, surged to $37.73, then collapsed to $35.28—a 6.8% intra-day swing. This volatility aligns with the 2X Long SMR ETF (SMU) dropping 9.7%, indicating leveraged retail and institutional players amplifying the move. The lack of company-specific news and the timing of the selloff (post-16:54 ET) point to algorithmic trading or options expiration dynamics.

Nuclear Sector Steadies as SMR Dives
Bearish Playbook: Puts and ETFs in Focus
• 200-day average: $25.87 (well above current price)
• RSI: 20.4 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.43 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: SMR trading near lower band at $36.50
• Key support: 200D MA at $25.87; 30D support at $44.37 (unlikely to hold)
• Tradr 2X Long SMR ETF (SMU): -9.7% intraday, reflecting leveraged bearish sentiment

Top Options:
• SMR20250822P33.5
- Put option, strike $33.50, expires 2025-08-22
- IV: 87.62% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.322 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.038 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0738 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $1.99M (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (33.73): $33.50 - $33.73 = -$0.23 (breakeven at $33.50)
- Why it stands out: High IV and gamma make it ideal for a sharp rebound or continued decline.
• SMR20250822P34.5
- Put option, strike $34.50, expires 2025-08-22
- IV: 81.37% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: -0.3986 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0239 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0855 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: $8.76K (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (33.73): $34.50 - $33.73 = $0.77 (breakeven at $34.50)
- Why it stands out: Lower delta and higher gamma balance risk/reward for a mid-term bearish bet.

Trading Setup: With SMR near 52W low ($6.88) and RSI at oversold levels, a short-term bounce to $36.50 (Bollinger lower band) is plausible. However, the 200D MA at $25.87 and -159.83 PE ratio suggest long-term bearishness. Aggressive traders may short SMR20250822P33.5 into a $33.50 breakdown.

Backtest NuScale Power Stock Performance
The strategy of buying the SMR after a -5% intraday plunge has shown favorable performance. The backtest data indicates a 3-day win rate of 51.10%, a 10-day win rate of 52.32%, and a 30-day win rate of 53.55%. Additionally, the strategy has achieved an average return of 1.57% over 3 days, 3.61% over 10 days, and 11.82% over 30 days, with a maximum return of 24.85% on day 59.

Critical Crossroads: SMR’s 52W Low Looms
NuScale Power’s 4.8% intraday drop underscores a pivotal moment. While the nuclear sector advances with molten salt reactor approvals and DOE projects, SMR’s technicals and options volatility signal a potential breakdown. Watch the 200D MA at $25.87 and 52W low ($6.88) as key thresholds. The sector leader Exelon (EXC) fell -0.53%, indicating broader nuclear sector caution. For now, short-term bears should target SMR20250822P33.5 if the $33.50 level breaks, while long-term investors may wait for a rebound to $36.50 before re-entering.