NuScale Power Plunges 10.88%, Is the NuScale Dream Over?

Summary
• Fluor's decision to convert and sell 15M NuScale Class B shares triggered immediate market panic
• SMR's price dropped from $45.96 intraday high to $41.9079 low, a 10.88% collapse
• Turnover surged to 23.1M shares, 19% of its average volume
Today’s dramatic selloff in NuScale Power (SMR) has stunned investors, with shares tumbling over 10% amid Fluor’s aggressive share-offloading strategy. The stock’s sharp decline reflects broader investor anxiety over NuScale’s commercial viability and regulatory hurdles. With the stock now trading near its 52-week low of $6.88, the question looms: can NuScale’s SMR technology recover from this blow?

Fluor’s Share Dump Sparks Panic
NuScale’s 11% intraday plunge was directly triggered by Fluor’s announcement to convert 15 million Class B shares into Class A shares for immediate sale. This move, framed as a ‘simplification of accounting,’ threatens to flood the market with cheap liquidity, depressing SMR’s price. Fluor’s Q2 earnings report revealed $3.2B in NuScale-related mark-to-market gains, but the company cited volatility as a burden. By offloading shares, Fluor aims to monetize its stake in NuScale, which now accounts for 28% of the stock’s float. The selloff intensified as investors anticipated a flood of supply, with Fluor’s 29.15% drop in its own shares compounding the panic.

Options and ETF Plays in a Volatile SMR Environment
• MACD: 3.87 (above signal line 3.63), bullish momentum but diverging
• RSI: 70.97 (overbought territory, suggesting exhaustion)
• 200D MA: $24.74 (far below current price, long-term support)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band ($32.06), indicating oversold conditions
• SMU ETF: -21.3% intraday, 2X leveraged to SMR
Key levels to monitor include the 200D MA at $24.74 and the Bollinger lower band at $32.06. A short-term rebound could test the $43.50 resistance (50D MA), but the 200D MA remains a critical long-term floor. The leveraged SMU ETF (-21.3% today) amplifies SMR’s volatility, making it a high-risk play for aggressive traders.
Top Option 1: SMR20250808P45 (Put)
• Code: SMR20250808P45
• Strike: $45
• Expiry: 2025-08-08
• IV: 124.82% (high volatility)
• LVR: 13.39% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: -0.467
• Theta: -0.073 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.048 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: $106,781
• IV: High volatility ensures premium retention
• LVR: 13.39% offers leveraged downside exposure
• Delta: -0.467 balances directional risk
• Theta: -0.073 allows time decay to work in favor
• Gamma: 0.048 ensures responsiveness to price swings
Projected 5% downside scenario: Put payoff = $45 - $42.51 = $2.49/share. This contract excels in a moderate bearish move due to its balanced delta/gamma profile and high IV.
Top Option 2: SMR20250808P44.5 (Put)
• Code: SMR20250808P44.5
• Strike: $44.50
• Expiry: 2025-08-08
• IV: 119.26% (high volatility)
• LVR: 15.26% (strong leverage)
• Delta: -0.444
• Theta: -0.071 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.050 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $38,294
• IV: 119.26% ensures premium resilience
• LVR: 15.26% provides aggressive downside exposure
• Delta: -0.444 moderates directional risk
• Theta: -0.071 allows time decay to favor the trade
• Gamma: 0.050 ensures responsiveness to price swings
Projected 5% downside scenario: Put payoff = $44.50 - $42.51 = $1.99/share. This contract’s high gamma and moderate delta make it ideal for a sharp but limited decline.

Backtest NuScale Power Stock Performance
The SMR strategy demonstrated resilience following a significant intraday plunge of -11%. Over the backtested period from August 1, 2020, to July 1, 2025, there were 402 events where SMR experienced a drop of at least -11%. The 3-day win rate was 51.49%, the 10-day win rate was 51.99%, and the 30-day win rate was 53.23%. The average returns were positive, with a 3-day return of 1.64%, a 10-day return of 3.54%, and a 30-day return of 11.89%. The maximum return during the backtest was 25.32%, which occurred on day 59 after the plunge.

NuScale at Crossroads: Rebound or Collapse?
NuScale’s 10.88% drop reflects both Fluor’s aggressive liquidity move and lingering doubts about its commercial viability. While the stock remains above its 200D MA ($24.74), the Bollinger lower band at $32.06 and 52W low of $6.88 loom as critical support levels. Short-term traders should watch for a bounce above $43.50 (50D MA), while long-term investors must assess whether NuScale’s SMR project in Romania can deliver by 2029. Meanwhile, the sector leader Exelon (EXC) fell -0.61%, signaling mixed sentiment in nuclear energy. Act now: Consider SMR20250808P45 for a moderate bearish play or SMU for leveraged exposure, but brace for a potential breakdown below $42.06.