NuScale Power: Building the AI Energy Infrastructure Layer on the Exponential Adoption S-Curve

The paradigm shift is here. The exponential adoption of artificial intelligence is not just changing software; it is fundamentally reshaping the global energy landscape. The demand for power to train and run AI models is accelerating at a pace that existing grids cannot easily accommodate. This creates a clear, urgent need for a new infrastructure layer: reliable, low-carbon baseload power that can scale with the curve.

The numbers illustrate the scale of this shift. According to Gartner, worldwide data center electricity consumption is projected to double from 448 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025 to 980 TWh by 2030. This isn't just incremental growth; it's a doubling of the entire sector's energy footprint in five years. The driver is AI-optimized servers, whose electricity usage alone is set to rise nearly fivefold over the same period. This creates a massive, persistent load that requires a stable power source, not just intermittent renewables.

In this context, advanced nuclear technology, specifically Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), emerges as a potential foundational solution. NuScale Power is positioned at the forefront of this race. The company holds a critical first-mover advantage: it is the only SMR company in the U.S. with a design approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This regulatory clearance is a key hurdle that others must still clear, giving NuScale a significant lead in the race to deploy.

The thesis is straightforward. The AI energy paradigm demands a new kind of infrastructure-a clean, dispatchable baseload that can operate 24/7. NuScale's SMR technology, with its modular design and inherent safety features, is engineered for this role. Recent high-level initiatives underscore this potential. The company's strategic partner, ENTRA1 Energy, was positioned to receive up to $25 billion in investment under a new U.S.-Japan framework aimed at expanding critical energy infrastructure. The program explicitly targets fast-growing energy demand from AI data centers. This alignment between a technological solution and a geopolitical energy strategy highlights the potential for SMRs to become a core component of the AI power stack.

The bottom line is that we are witnessing the early stages of an infrastructure build-out. The exponential growth in AI energy demand is creating a clear market need. NuScale's NRC-approved design gives it a unique position to supply the foundational power required to fuel the next technological paradigm. The coming years will test whether this potential can be translated into commercial reality.

The Commercialization S-Curve: From Design to Deployment

The path from a regulatory-approved design to a commercial fleet is the steepest part of the S-curve. For NuScale, the company has yet to secure its first paying customer, despite a 2025 forecast for two or three customers. This gap between promise and payment is the central execution risk. The company remains in the "concept to commercial reality" phase, where the technology's viability must be proven through actual contracts and deployments.

The landmark 6 GW deployment program with TVA and ENTRA1 Energy is the first major step toward commercial scale. This isn't a single project; it's a program designed to demonstrate a repeatable model for SMR deployment. By partnering with a major utility and a specialized developer, NuScale is showing how its reactors can be integrated into a large-scale, multi-unit build-out. This is the critical pivot from proving a single unit to building an infrastructure layer.

The potential acceleration from the U.S.-Japan Framework Agreement could be transformative. The program is positioned to receive up to $25 billion in investment capital under a framework that mobilizes up to $550 billion for energy infrastructure. This isn't just funding; it's a geopolitical signal that validates the SMR model. It could de-risk the capital-intensive build-out for projects like the TVA deal, potentially unlocking faster deployment and attracting other institutional partners.

The bottom line is that NuScale is now on the steep part of the adoption curve. The regulatory lead is secured, and the first major commercial program is underway. The coming year will test whether the company can convert its strategic partnerships into binding, paying contracts. Success here would confirm the model and set the stage for exponential growth as AI energy demand hits its inflection point. Failure to close a customer could stall the entire commercialization S-curve.

Financial Health and the Path to Exponential Growth

The financial runway is the bridge between today's promise and tomorrow's exponential growth. NuScale's cash position provides a critical buffer for this pre-revenue phase. The company ended the third quarter with $753.8 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short- and long-term investments. This liquidity was bolstered by a recent capital raise, as the company sold 13.2 million shares through an at-the-market program during the quarter, generating $475.2 million in gross proceeds. This proactive financing is essential for funding the next steps: finalizing designs, securing permits, and preparing for construction.

The market opportunity itself is a steady, multi-decade climb. The global small modular reactor market is projected to grow at an 8.9% compound annual rate from 2025 to 2034, expanding from a base of $7.49 billion to reach $16.13 billion. This is not a sudden explosion but a deliberate build-out. For NuScale, the goal is to capture a significant share of this growing pie, but the path requires navigating substantial execution risks that could derail the S-curve.

The first major hurdle is regulatory. While NuScale holds the crucial NRC design approval, securing final permits for specific sites like the TVA project and the Romanian plant is a complex, time-consuming process. Any significant delay here would push back the entire deployment timeline and increase costs.

Then comes the capital. The $25 billion in potential investment from the U.S.-Japan framework is a powerful signal, but it is not a guarantee. The company must now convert this strategic partnership into binding project financing. The TVA program, for instance, requires billions in committed capital to move from engineering to construction. The ability to attract this private investment, alongside public funds, will determine the pace of the build-out.

Finally, construction itself is a known risk. SMR projects, like all nuclear ventures, are capital-intensive and prone to cost overruns and schedule slippage. Managing these timelines and costs efficiently is paramount. A single major delay or cost spike could strain the company's balance sheet and erode confidence in the model.

The bottom line is that NuScale is in a classic infrastructure pre-revenue phase. It has the technology, the partnerships, and a solid cash cushion. But the exponential growth thesis depends entirely on successfully crossing the regulatory, financial, and construction chasms. The next year will be a test of execution, where financial health meets the harsh realities of building the future.

Catalysts, Scenarios, and What to Watch in 2026

The coming year is a decisive inflection point. For NuScale, 2026 must deliver on the commercialization promise that has been deferred. The investment thesis hinges on a series of near-term milestones that will either validate the company's position on the adoption S-curve or expose its execution vulnerabilities.

The primary catalyst is clear: securing its first binding customer contract. After a 2025 forecast for two or three customers that did not materialize, the company is under pressure to convert interest into payment. The most likely path is a state-backed or institutionally supported agreement, not a traditional utility deal. This would be a critical de-risking event, proving the technology can be deployed along a commercial pathway and providing a model for future projects.

Progress on the TVA/ENTRA1 6 GW program will be the next major watchpoint. This is the flagship demonstration of NuScale's scalable model. The key near-term steps are the completion of the Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) study and the subsequent Final Investment Decision (FID) for the first phase. The program's success is paramount; it will show whether the partnership can move from announcement to construction, setting the pace for the entire infrastructure layer.

Finally, investors must monitor regulatory milestones and major project announcements. The NRC's approval is a foundational hurdle, but final site-specific permits for projects like the TVA plant and the Romanian RoPower facility are the next gate. Any significant delay here would push back the entire deployment timeline. Equally important are financing deals. The up to $25 billion in investment capital under the U.S.-Japan Framework Agreement is a powerful signal, but the company must now see it translate into binding project financing. New announcements, whether from the U.S. or international markets, will indicate the breadth of global interest and the speed at which the SMR model is gaining traction.

The bottom line is that 2026 is about moving from concept to concrete. The company's ability to close a customer, advance the TVA program, and secure the necessary regulatory and financial approvals will determine if NuScale can navigate the steep part of the S-curve. These are the milestones that will separate the infrastructure builder from the promising idea.