NuScale Power Has a $3.7 Billion Valuation and $75,000 in Quarterly Revenue

NuScale Power trades at $8.61, down roughly 84 percent from its 52-week high of $57.42, with a $3.7 billion market capitalization. The company reported $75,000 in revenue last quarter. It burned $779 million in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. Shares outstanding have more than tripled since 2021, from 43.6 million to nearly 320 million.

This is not a company that is about to pay you a dividend or return capital. It is a technology bet wrapped in the most popular narrative in energy right now: AI is creating an insatiable demand for power, small modular nuclear reactors are the solution, and NuScale is the only game in town because it holds the only NRC-approved SMR design.

The narrative has legs. But narratives and business economics are different animals, and the gap between them is where investors lose money.

The deal nobody has signed

The bull case for NuScale centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority. In September 2025, ENTRA1 Energy — NuScale's exclusive global strategic partner — signed a collaborative agreement with TVA to develop up to 6 gigawatts of SMR capacity across seven states. NuScale's CEO called it potentially the largest nuclear power deployment in U.S. history.

Here is what that agreement is not: a binding contract. It is not a power purchase agreement. It is not a commitment to build, finance, or buy. It is a collaborative agreement to keep talking and figure out sites.

As of the second quarter of 2026, NuScale's own earnings release describes the status as "continues discussions with the Tennessee Valley Authority toward a definitive power purchase agreement". Toward. Not "signed." Not "closed." Toward.

Even when a definitive PPA is signed, NuScale's role is technology licensor and equipment supplier, not plant owner or operator. ENTRA1 develops, finances, and owns the nuclear assets. NuScale earns licensing fees and engineering revenue — a thin slice of a very large deal that may or may not materialize. And the company itself flagged in its own forward-looking statements that its SMRs may not be cost-competitive and that the SMR market is "not yet established".

The last time this happened

NuScale has been here before, with real money on the line. The Carbon Free Power Project in Utah was supposed to be the proof-of-concept: six SMR modules near Idaho Falls, 462 megawatts total, scheduled for completion in 2026, later pushed to 2029. The target cost was $55 per megawatt-hour for 40 years of electricity.

Costs climbed to $89 per MWh — a 62 percent overrun on the number utilities agreed to in 2019. Subscribers withdrew. NuScale and the Utah municipal power system mutually terminated the project in November 2023. The stock plunged. The Department of Energy's $232 million in funding and $1.4 billion cost-share commitment went with it.

The Tennessee Valley Authority's deal structure was explicitly designed to avoid repeating that outcome. ENTRA1, not TVA ratepayers, bears the construction risk. That's a reasonable risk allocation — but it means the economic question NuScale has to answer hasn't changed. The reactors have to actually be affordable, the supply chain has to deliver at the quoted numbers, and someone has to be willing to bet billions that it all works.

The cash math

NuScale ended the second quarter of 2026 with approximately $1.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. It has zero debt. The current ratio stands at 37.88. On a pure solvency basis, the company is not going broke next year.

But $1.9 billion against a $779 million annual burn rate is not a runway; it's a runway with an expiring extension. The company raised that cash through dilution. An at-the-market offering in the second half of 2025 generated $750 million by selling 39.3 million shares. The share count jumped 116 percent in 2026 alone, from roughly 139 million to nearly 320 million. Another $750 million share sale was announced in August 2026, implying roughly 21 percent additional dilution at then-current prices.

Every dollar raised through equity dilution is a dollar that reduces what any single existing share is worth. You can own NuScale today and have your ownership stake divided three ways by the time the company has a chance to generate meaningful revenue.

Revenue, by the way, is not the issue of scale — it's the issue of existence. The company's full-year 2025 revenue was $31.5 million. The first quarter of 2026 brought in $600,000. The second quarter brought in $75,000. Management described the revenue pattern as "lumpy and milestone-based," which is accurate — because right now there are almost no milestones left to hit. The Fluor engineering work for the Romania project wrapped up in late 2025, and there was no comparable activity in 2026.

The market gave it a vote, then took it back

The stock peaked near $57 in late 2025, buoyed by the TVA announcement, the AI power narrative, and a broader nuclear rotation. Analysts called it the SMR stock at the heart of the AI energy boom. Then the quarterly reports came out, the dilution hit, the revenue kept falling, and the stock has since lost 84 percent of that peak value.

The analyst consensus median price target sits at $12.00 — about 39 percent above the current price of $8.61, and still about 79 percent below the stock's 52-week high of $57.42. Eight analysts rate it a Buy, five Hold, and three Sell. Those are the numbers that matter less. The cash flow matters more.

What matters more is the timeline. CEO John Hopkins said construction from first concrete pour to mechanical completion takes slightly less than 40 months, not counting the licensing period — which the company is trying to compress from the standard two years. That puts any actual reactor, let alone revenue from a reactor, at a minimum of three to four years out if everything goes smoothly. Four years of continued cash burn, continued dilution, continued zero revenue.

What this means for your decision

NuScale is not a company you buy for cash flow, dividends, or earnings. It's an option on whether SMR technology becomes commercially viable at scale, and whether NuScale specifically is the one to profit from it. That is a legitimate way to think about an investment — if you understand exactly what kind of investment you're making.

The structural facts are clear. The company has the only NRC-certified SMR design, which is a genuine regulatory moat. It has a partner relationship with TVA that could scale to 6 gigawatts if it closes. It has $1.9 billion in cash and no debt. It also has $75,000 in quarterly revenue, a 116 percent share dilution over the past year, a canceled flagship project from three years ago, and a business model where someone else builds the plants and NuScale earns licensing fees.

If SMRs become commercially successful, NuScale's certified design and first-mover position give it real optionality. The question is not whether the technology is interesting — it is — but whether the economics of this particular company, with its dilution trajectory and revenue timeline, justify the capital you commit today.

The condition that would change this picture is not a press release or a collaborative agreement. It would be a signed, binding power purchase agreement at a quoted price that actually supports the economics. Until that happens, NuScale is a technology company with a balance sheet that buys time and a share count that eats it.