NuScale's 64% Drop: The Fluor Stake Sale Timeline and 2026 Catalysts

The specific event driving NuScale's collapse is a classic profit-taking move. Fluor, a long-term investor that has backed NuScale for 14 years, is selling its stake to capitalize on the stock's 2025 surge. The company completed a major sale last October for $605 million in proceeds, and it plans to monetize its remaining position by the end of the second quarter. This direct selling pressure is a key reason the stock has fallen 64% from its October 2025 peak.

This sell-off is happening as the broader nuclear sector's speculative bubble begins to deflate. The rally was fueled by global commitments to triple nuclear capacity, but as the reality of long development timelines sets in, the euphoria is fading. NuScale's decline is stark: its shares have lost 54.4% over the past three months, significantly underperforming its industry peers. While the Zacks Electronics-Power Generation index fell 50.6% in that period, NuScale's drop has been deeper, highlighting specific execution risks and investor skepticism about its path to commercialization.

The setup is now one of immediate pressure. Fluor's planned exit creates a clear overhang, while the stock's severe underperformance signals a loss of momentum within the sector. For NuScale, the catalyst is both external-large shareholder selling-and internal, as the market reassesses the company's ability to convert ambitious plans into revenue.

The Tactical Valuation Setup: Price vs. Peak and Downside Targets

The numbers tell a clear story of a stock that has been brutally reset. NuScale's shares are now trading at $19.47, a steep decline from their 52-week high of $57.42. That's a drop of over 65% from the peak, a level that now looks like a distant, speculative high-water mark. Yet, the stock remains a long way from its lows, still trading 76% above its 52-week low of $11.08. This positioning creates a volatile, choppy setup where the path of least resistance is down, but a full collapse to the low seems unlikely in the near term.

Analysts have been trimming their estimates to reflect the new reality. The latest fair value estimate has been cut from $36.58 to $35.50, a reduction that signals a more cautious view on contract timing and funding risks. This revised target sits well above the current price, but the gap is narrowing. The key risk is that the stock's recent underperformance and the ongoing Fluor stake sale could force further downward revisions if execution delays materialize.

The company's financials underscore its pre-revenue, high-loss stage. NuScale carries a negative P/E ratio of -8.69, which reflects heavy ongoing losses. For a growth investor, this is the cost of admission for a company still years from commercialization. The valuation now hinges entirely on future milestones-securing firm orders, finalizing the TVA contract, and demonstrating capital raises are working-rather than current earnings. The tactical setup is one of high uncertainty: the stock is deeply discounted from its peak, but the path to the revised fair value is fraught with execution and funding risks.

The Execution Gap: From NRC Approval to Firm Orders

NuScale holds the only NRC-approved SMR design in the U.S., a critical regulatory milestone. Yet, that certification is a starting point, not a revenue guarantee. The company's ambitious plan to deploy 6 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity through partnerships with ENTRA1 and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is where the real risk lies. This expansion hinges on converting current term sheets into binding power purchase agreements (PPAs), a process that remains incomplete and faces significant execution and funding hurdles.

The timeline is long and uncertain. The first plant, a 12-module project, is targeted to begin delivering power around 2030. For now, the company is focused on the combined operating license application, but meaningful revenues are years away. Management has already paid $128.5 million to ENTRA1 as part of a milestone agreement, with total payments across all six TVA projects potentially reaching several billion dollars before any equipment orders materialize. This capital outlay, against minimal current revenue of just $8.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, underscores the pre-revenue, high-investment phase the company is in.

Recent validation studies offer a glimpse of the technology's potential. A study with Oak Ridge National Laboratory found that NuScale's system can be both profitable and reliable for powering industrial chemical plants, providing high-temperature steam and electricity. This is a positive technical validation, but it remains in the realm of assessment, not commercial contract. The gap between a profitable technology and a signed, funded project is the core challenge. Until NuScale secures firm orders and binding PPAs with its key partners, the stock's valuation will continue to be judged on the risk of delay, not the promise of future profit.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch in 2026

The stock's path in 2026 will be dictated by a few clear, near-term events. The most immediate catalyst is the completion of Fluor's stake sale. The company has already sold $605 million worth of shares and plans to exit its remaining position by the end of the second quarter. Monitoring the pace of this sale is critical. Any acceleration could add fresh selling pressure, while a steady, orderly wind-down might signal the overhang is being absorbed. Concurrently, watch for signs of new institutional buying. The absence of such support would reinforce the bearish sentiment, while any visible accumulation could provide a floor.

Beyond the shareholder dynamics, the market will look for tangible progress on the execution gap. The key near-term catalysts are announcements of firm project contracts or government funding commitments. Securing binding power purchase agreements with partners like ENTRA1 and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is the bridge from term sheets to revenue. Any positive update on these fronts would directly address the core risk of delay and could halt the stock's decline. Conversely, continued silence or setbacks would validate the skepticism that has driven the 64% drop.

The technical setup points to a vulnerable range. With the stock trading around $19.47, it is still 76% above its 52-week low of $11.08. This creates a clear downside risk if the bear thesis confirms. The key risk is continued underperformance against the broader nuclear sector, which itself is deflating after its speculative surge. If NuScale fails to secure orders and its financials show no improvement, the path toward that low becomes more likely. The tactical watchlist is now clear: follow Fluor's exit, track contract news, and watch the volume for a shift in institutional sentiment.