Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) Market Overview

• Price action remained range-bound around 0.0001155-0.0001162.
• High volatility observed between 18:00 and 19:00 ET yesterday.
• Low volume and turnover outside 18:00-19:00 and 05:45–06:00 ET today.
• RSI appears neutral, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands show no significant expansion, indicating consolidation.

Numeraire/Bitcoin (NMRBTC) opened at 0.0001162 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 0.0001148 by 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 0.0001191 and a low of 0.0001148. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 948.66, with a notional turnover of about 0.1104 BTC-equivalent.

The pair displayed a narrow range with limited directional bias. No clear candlestick pattern emerged, and the price remained clustered near the lower end of the 24-hour range, suggesting bearish pressure in the final hours. The 15-minute EMA(20) and EMA(50) lines were closely aligned, with minimal separation, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction.

Bollinger Bands remained compressed, with price action staying within a narrow range near the lower band for much of the day. RSI oscillated between 45 and 55, which is a neutral range, but the low volume seen after 20:00 ET yesterday suggests limited conviction behind the bearish move. The MACD histogram remained flat for most of the period, with no significant divergence from price action.

Volume was highly uneven, with a large portion concentrated in the 18:00–19:00 ET window. The largest 15-minute candle (18:00–18:15 ET) accounted for 110.11 units of volume and showed a sharp intracandle rally and subsequent sell-off. This suggests short-term speculative activity, but no clear trend formation. The final 15-minute candle (16:00–16:15 ET) saw a reversal, with price closing slightly lower after a modest intracandle high.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.0001162 high to the 0.0001148 low show 0.0001155 aligning with the 38.2% level, which has held as a minor support area. The 61.8% level at ~0.0001151 may represent a potential near-term floor if the consolidation continues. On the daily timeframe, a larger bearish move may require a break below the 50-day moving average, currently estimated at ~0.0001150.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed strategy relies on detecting MACD death-cross events and building a simple long signal that exits three days later. Given that NMRBTC's MACD has remained flat for much of the 24-hour period, with no clear divergence or crossover, this strategy would likely remain inactive in the short term. A more dynamic market with distinct MACD crossovers would be required for meaningful signals. Assuming historical MACD data becomes available, the backtest would assess whether such a basic strategy could yield positive returns, particularly in a market like NMRBTC, where low volume and limited price movement suggest a potentially high false-positive rate for signals. To proceed, I will require an exchange-qualified ticker or uploaded data to re-fetch the MACD series and initiate the backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-24.