Numeraire/Bitcoin Market Overview – 2025-11-04

Summary
• Price remained confined between 0.0001121 and 0.0001176 over 24 hours.
• Late-night buying pushed price 3.9% higher in last 6 hours.
• Volume surged to 346.79 at 04:30 ET, with high volatility.
• RSI signaled overbought levels in the final hours.

NMRBTC opened at 0.0001127 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 0.0001205 before settling at 0.0001142 at 12:00 ET. The pair moved in a tight range most of the day, with late-hour buying pressure lifting it 3.9% from a morning low. Total traded volume was 6,580.64, with notional turnover of ~$756,500 based on average BTC price.

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a strong support at 0.0001121 and resistance at 0.0001176, with a bullish breakout attempt in the early morning hours. A morning doji at 06:45 ET indicated indecision, while a long white candle at 04:30 ET marked a decisive reversal.

Moving Averages

Short-term averages (20/50) on the 15-min chart indicate a bullish crossover, with the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA for much of the session. Daily 50/100/200 EMA lines were relatively flat, suggesting the pair remains in a range-bound consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed diverging histogram bars in the late-night hours, with the line crossing above the signal line as price surged. RSI pushed above 65 in the final 6 hours, indicating overbought conditions, though a true reversal above 70 was not achieved.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked at 04:30 ET, with price pushing above the upper band briefly. The bands had been constricting until that point, suggesting a potential breakout was in the works. Price then retracted but remains within the upper half of the bands, indicating continued bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 04:30 ET, with 346.79 contracts traded, coinciding with the breakout move above 0.0001176. Turnover was uneven, with periods of inactivity (e.g., 03:30–04:15 ET) followed by sharp surges.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.0001151 was tested twice during the session and held as resistance early on, but later became support during the 06:30 ET pullback. The 50% level at 0.0001149 became a pivot point in the final hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed RSI-14 strategy could be refined by incorporating the pair’s recent volatility patterns and key Fibonacci levels. The observed behavior suggests that the 61.8% retracement at 0.0001151 could act as an entry trigger if RSI exceeds 70. However, the overbought condition at 0.0001176 indicates that a tight stop-loss may be necessary to avoid false breakouts.