By the Numbers: A Divergent Path for U.S. Agricultural Exports in 2025-26

The U.S. agricultural export landscape in 2025-26 is a study in contrasts. While soybeans and cotton are on track for record highs, corn and wheat face a slowdown driven by global competition and policy headwinds. This bifurcated outlook, as noted by analyst Brian Braun of the USDA, reflects both the opportunities and vulnerabilities embedded in America’s agricultural trade.

The Soybean Boom

Soybeans are the star performer, with exports projected to surge 8% to 2.1 billion bushels, accounting for 35% of total agricultural export revenue. The rise is fueled by robust demand from China and Southeast Asia, where livestock production and biofuel mandates are expanding. The USDA attributes this growth to U.S. competitiveness in quality and logistics, though it cautions that China’s domestic production adjustments and trade policy shifts could disrupt this trajectory.

Cotton’s Moderate Gain

Cotton exports are expected to grow 5%, benefiting from rising global textile production and the U.S. position as a supplier of high-quality, sustainably grown cotton. The USDA notes that U.S. cotton’s premium pricing—driven by organic and genetically modified varieties—is offsetting competition from India and Brazil.

The Grains Dilemma

Corn and wheat face steeper challenges. Corn exports are projected to fall 3%, pressured by Brazil and Argentina’s logistical advantages—such as lower freight costs—and policy-driven subsidies. Meanwhile, wheat exports are set to decline 2%, as Black Sea nations like Russia and Ukraine flood global markets with competitively priced supplies.

The USDA warns that U.S. wheat’s market share is further eroded by EU protectionism and Canada’s aggressive export subsidies.

The Big Picture: Risks and Opportunities

Total agricultural exports are projected to hit a record $185 billion, up from $181 billion in 2024-25. However, the reliance on soybeans—now nearly a third of all export revenue—poses a risk. A single commodity’s dominance leaves the sector vulnerable to supply disruptions, trade disputes, or shifts in China’s demand.

Weather remains a wildcard. A drought in the U.S. Midwest or a South American bumper crop could drastically reshape these numbers. Geopolitical factors, such as U.S.-China trade negotiations and Black Sea grain deals, add further uncertainty.

Conclusion: Adapt or Stagnate

The USDA’s projections underscore a critical truth: U.S. agriculture’s export success hinges on diversification and resilience. While soybeans and cotton are thriving, corn and wheat’s struggles highlight the need for innovation—whether in crop rotation, technology, or trade diplomacy—to counter global competitors.

The data is clear: the $185 billion export milestone depends on soybeans, but long-term stability requires reducing reliance on a single crop. Investors should monitor Brazil’s production trends, Black Sea trade policies, and U.S. agricultural subsidies closely. For now, the sector’s “mixed outlook” is a reminder that in global agriculture, success is as much about hedging bets as it is about betting big.

As the USDA’s Braun concludes, “The U.S. has the tools to navigate these challenges, but complacency is not an option.” The numbers will tell the story.

Data sources: USDA Agricultural Projections 2025-2030, CME Group commodity futures, and trade flow analyses.