Nucor Stock Rises 3.11% On Bullish Technical Breakout

Nucor (NUE) shares advanced 3.11% in the most recent session, closing at $145.83 on above-average volume. This strong performance warrants a detailed technical assessment using multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows significant bullish momentum. The latest session formed a decisive green candle closing near the high ($146), decisively breaching the recent swing high resistance around $146 established on July 23rd. This breakout suggests bullish conviction. Crucially, the session preceding the gain (July 24th) formed a Hammer-like pattern near $140.30 - supported by prior lows from mid-July ($135.60 - $137 area) and late June ($122). This $138-$140 zone now acts as strong short-term support, while resistance levels shift to the year-to-date high near $146-$147 and historical peaks around $158-$159.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages depict a conflicting trend landscape. The 50-day MA slopes upward near $138, providing dynamic support and confirming the short-term uptrend. The price sits comfortably above both the 100-day ($135) and 200-day ($133) MAs. However, the longer-term MAs (100-day and 200-day) themselves exhibit a slightly negative slope due to the significant pullback from the Q1 2025 highs. This divergence suggests underlying weakness despite the current price surge. A sustained hold above the 50-day MA is crucial for near-term bullishness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) is currently above its signal line and accelerating positive, indicating strengthening bullish momentum aligned with the recent breakout. However, it remains below the zero line, reflecting the medium-term downtrend. The KDJ indicator presents a cautionary signal: the K and D lines are crossing above 80, firmly in overbought territory. While this suggests strong upside momentum currently, it heightens the risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation to alleviate overbought conditions, especially near strong resistance.
Bollinger Bands
Nucor's price has broken above the upper Bollinger Band (20,2), now near $144.60. Bandwidth has been expanding, reflecting increased volatility associated with the sharp rally. While a close above the upper band signifies potent short-term strength, it is statistically overextended. Price often exhibits reversion towards the middle band (20-SMA, aligning with the 50-day MA near $138) after such moves. This reinforces the identified $138-$140 zone as significant potential support.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent price gains have occurred on noticeably increasing volume, validating the breakout move above $144. High volume on July 10th and July 2nd also marked strong bullish days, establishing these sessions as reliable volume confirmation points. The surge above the July 23rd peak happened on volume higher than the preceding down days, supporting the sustainability of the breakout, though continuation will require consistent buying interest above $146.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI is calculated at approximately 67. While comfortably below the overbought threshold (70), it reflects strong positive momentum consistent with the breakout. This position allows room for further upside before technical exhaustion becomes a primary concern. However, its ascent into the 65-70 zone warrants monitoring, especially if price faces rejection near $146-$147 resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major downswing from the Q1 2025 peak near $159 (approx. March 21st) to the June 2025 low near $120.40 (June 2nd) reveals key levels:
38.2% retracement: $136.50 (aligns with the 50-day MA & Bollinger Midline)
50% retracement: $139.70 (aligns with the July support zone)
61.8% retracement: $142.90 (recently surpassed resistance turned support?)
78.6% retracement: $147.10 (key resistance, near year-to-date high $146-$147)
The recent surge reclaimed the 61.8% level ($142.90), turning it into potential support. The major confluence of resistance near $146-$147 aligns closely with the 78.6% retracement level ($147.10) and the March/June 2025 swing highs.
Confluence & Probabilities
Strong confluence exists around $138-$140, combining the 50-day MA, Bollinger Midline, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and prior swing lows. This zone offers critical support. Confluence resistance is concentrated at $146-$147 (swing high, YTD peak, 78.6% Fib). Bullish confluence is present: the breakout on increasing volume, rising MACD, and supportive RSI/MAs. The significant overbought KDJ and price breaching the Bollinger Upper Band suggest near-term consolidation above $142.90 is probable before challenging $147 resistance. A decisive close above $147 would signal a strong trend reversal and potential test of higher levels ($152-$154), though confirmation via volume and momentum is essential. Conversely, failure to hold $142.90 could lead to a retest of the strong $138-$140 support area.