Nucor (NUE) Surges 5.2% on Earnings Pop—What’s Fueling This Steel Giant’s Rally?

Summary
• Nucor (NUE) surges 5.19% to $151.65, hitting an intraday high of $154.78
• Q3 net earnings jump to $607M, EBITDA hits $1.27B, outpacing Q2 and Q3 2024
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts traded, with NUE20251031C150 seeing $226,822 turnover

Nucor’s stock is in a tailwind as Q3 earnings and strategic capital returns drive a sharp rally. The steel giant’s EBITDA and net earnings outperformed expectations, while its $2.75B cash hoard and $506M share repurchase authorization signal robust financial health. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $170.52, traders are scrambling to position for the October 28 earnings call and potential sector tailwinds.

Q3 Earnings Surge and Strategic Expansion Drive Nucor’s Rally
Nucor’s 5.19% intraday surge is anchored by its Q3 earnings report, which revealed net earnings of $607M and EBITDA of $1.27B—surpassing both Q2 2025 and Q3 2024 figures. The company’s steel mills and products segments, despite margin compression, delivered $883M in earnings before taxes, while its $2.75B cash balance and $506M remaining share repurchase authorization underscore financial strength. CEO Leon Topalian highlighted production ramp-ups at new bar mills and sheet steel projects, signaling long-term growth. The rally also reflects optimism around Nucor’s $140.46 average repurchase price and its 210th consecutive dividend, which reinforces shareholder confidence.

Steel Sector Mixed as Nucor Outpaces Peers on Earnings and Capital Returns
The steel sector remains fragmented, with Arcelormittal (MT) down 0.1% despite Nucor’s outperformance. While Nucor’s EBITDA of $1.27B and $2.75B cash balance highlight its dominance, peers like U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs face margin pressures from global overcapacity. Nucor’s strategic focus on downstream steel-adjacent businesses and its $1B shareholder returns year-to-date position it as a sector leader, contrasting with peers’ capital constraints.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Nucor’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 130.25 (below current price)
• RSI: 60.8 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.18 (bullish), Signal Line: -0.72 (bearish), Histogram: 0.90 (positive divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper 142.55, Middle 137.04, Lower 131.52 (price near upper band)

Nucor’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA and RSI near overbought levels, indicating strong short-term momentum. Key support at $135.25 and resistance at $139.02 (200D/30D range) could dictate near-term direction. The Steel Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) offers broad exposure to the sector, though Nucor’s outperformance may warrant a direct position.

Top Options Picks:
1. NUE20251031C150
• Strike: $150, Expiry: 2025-10-31
• IV: 47.13% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 33.63% (high)
• Delta: 0.65 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.92 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.049 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: $226,822 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $5.83/share (max(0, 159.23 - 150))
This call option offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakout above $150. The high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, while moderate IV suggests reasonable cost.

2. NUE20251031C152.5
• Strike: $152.5, Expiry: 2025-10-31
• IV: 49.34% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 46.84% (high)
• Delta: 0.52 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.85 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.050 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: $15,990 (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $6.73/share (max(0, 159.23 - 152.5))
This contract balances leverage and delta, offering a sweet spot for a continuation of the rally. The high gamma and moderate IV make it a strong candidate for aggressive bulls.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider NUE20251031C150 into a breakout above $150, while conservative traders can use NUE20251031C152.5 for a leveraged play on the 52-week high.

Backtest Nucor Stock Performance
Below is the event-study report that measures Nucor’s (NUE.N) performance after every trading day on which its intraday high was ≥ 5 % above the prior-day close (Jan-2022 – 27 Oct 2025).Key take-aways (30-day event window, 576 events):• Average cumulative excess return vs. benchmark: ≈ +0.17 % (1.92 % vs. 1.75 %).• Win-rate improves gradually to ~56 % by day 10, but statistical significance is low across the window.• No pronounced post-event drift – price tends to track market/sector.Interpretation: A 5 % intraday spike in NUE has not historically led to a reliable out-performance over the following month. Consider combining this signal with other filters (volume, macro backdrop, steel-price momentum) or using tighter risk controls if trading it.Feel free to explore the interactive module above for full day-by-day statistics.

Nucor’s Rally Gains Steam—Position for a Breakout or Reversal
Nucor’s Q3 earnings and capital return strategy have ignited a sharp rally, but sustainability hinges on its ability to maintain margins amid global steel overcapacity. Traders should monitor the October 28 earnings call for guidance on Q4, where the company expects lower earnings due to volume and pricing pressures. The Steel Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) remains a sector proxy, though Nucor’s outperformance may justify a direct position. Watch for a $150 breakout or a pullback to $135.25 support. Meanwhile, Arcelormittal (MT)’s -0.1% dip highlights sector fragility, making Nucor’s balance sheet and dividend a compelling contrast.