Nucor (NUE): A Strategic Buy for 2026 Amid Favorable Fundamentals and Technical Setup

Nucor Corporation (NUE), a leader in the U.S. steel industry, presents a compelling case for investors in 2026. The convergence of robust fundamental growth prospects and a bullish technical setup positions the stock as a strategic buy, particularly for those seeking exposure to a resilient industrial sector poised for recovery.

Fundamental Outlook: Earnings Resilience and Shareholder Returns

Nucor's 2026 financial projections underscore its ability to navigate cyclical challenges while maintaining long-term growth. Analysts forecast a 46.8% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $11.73 for 2026, driven by improved order backlogs and favorable market conditions in construction-related end markets such as energy and infrastructure. This follows a 10.2% decline in 2025 earnings, which was attributed to seasonal factors and fewer shipping days. The company's commitment to shareholder returns further strengthens its appeal: Nucor has returned approximately $1.2 billion to stockholders in 2025 through buybacks and dividends, with a raised quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share.

The steelmaker's operational efficiency and cost discipline are critical tailwinds. Despite Q4 2025 earnings guidance of $1.65–$1.75 per share (below the $2.18 consensus estimate), Nucor's Q3 2025 results-exceeding expectations with $2.63 per share-highlight its capacity to outperform in favorable conditions. Analysts project a 26% annual earnings growth rate and a 12.2% return on equity (ROE) over the next three years, metrics that align with its historical performance and industry benchmarks.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum and Structural Support

Technically, NUE's chart patterns and indicators reinforce its 2026 upside potential. The stock's recent price action has formed a failed head-and-shoulders top, a classic bullish reversal pattern. By failing to break the downward-sloping neckline, NUE has resumed its prior uptrend, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $152.37 and the 200-day SMA at $135.42 both trending upward. This suggests continued institutional confidence in the stock's trajectory.

Key technical indicators further validate the bullish case. The 14-day RSI of 56.61 indicates neutral momentum, avoiding overbought territory and leaving room for upward movement. Meanwhile, the stochastic oscillator at 73.921 and a strong RSI of 61.606 signal positive momentum. Support and resistance levels, including s1 at $165.35 and r1 at $166.90, provide a clear framework for near-term price action. Analysts have set a median price target of $168.00 for 2026, implying a 15.2% upside from current levels.

Convergence of Fundamentals and Technicals

The alignment of Nucor's fundamentals and technicals creates a compelling investment thesis. Strong earnings growth projections, coupled with a favorable technical setup, suggest that NUE is well-positioned to capitalize on 2026's industrial recovery. The company's focus on shareholder returns-through buybacks and dividends-adds a layer of defensive value, mitigating downside risk in a volatile market.

Moreover, Nucor's strategic positioning in energy and infrastructure sectors, which are expected to benefit from U.S. policy tailwinds, enhances its long-term appeal. As noted by Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners, "NUE's operational flexibility and market-leading margins position it to outperform peers in a rebound scenario." This sentiment is echoed in the technical analysis, where moving averages and chart patterns signal sustained upward momentum.

Conclusion

Nucor (NUE) offers a rare combination of strong fundamental growth and technically favorable conditions for 2026. With a projected 26% annual earnings growth rate, a 12.2% ROE, and a bullish technical outlook, the stock is well-positioned to deliver value to investors. While near-term volatility is inevitable in a cyclical sector, the convergence of these factors makes NUE a strategic buy for those with a medium- to long-term horizon.