NU Plunges 3.05% as Short-Term Bearish Momentum Intensifies

Summary
• Nu Holdings (NU) trades at $11.925, down 3.05% from its previous close of $12.30
• Intraday range spans $11.92 to $12.37, with 27.9 million shares traded
• RSI at 32.95 signals oversold conditions, while MACD (-0.204) confirms bearish momentum
• Options chain shows heightened put activity, with 1441 contracts for the $11.50 strike on 8/15

Nu Holdings faces a sharp intraday selloff amid deteriorating technicals and bearish options positioning. The stock’s 3.05% decline has pushed it closer to key support levels, with the RSI in oversold territory and MACD divergence amplifying short-term risks. Analysts and institutional investors remain divided, but the options market suggests growing bearish conviction ahead of the August 14 earnings report.

Short-Term Bearish Momentum Intensifies Amid Technical Deterioration
Nu Holdings’ intraday decline reflects a confluence of bearish technical signals and options market positioning. The RSI at 32.95 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD (-0.204) and negative histogram (-0.062) confirm weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands show the stock trading near the lower band ($11.63), suggesting a potential breakdown. The options chain reveals aggressive put buying, particularly for the $11.50 strike on 8/15, with 1441 contracts traded and a 38.10% price change ratio. This activity underscores investor anticipation of further downside, especially with earnings due on August 14 and no immediate catalysts to reverse the trend.

Regional Banks Sector Mixed as U.S. Bancorp (USB) Trails
The regional banks sector remains fragmented, with U.S. Bancorp (USB) down 0.96% and Nu Holdings underperforming. While USB’s decline reflects broader sector weakness, NU’s 3.05% drop is driven by specific technical deterioration. The sector’s exposure to interest rate sensitivity and fintech competition continues to weigh, but NU’s bearish momentum is more pronounced due to its oversold RSI and aggressive put activity.

Bearish Options and ETFs Highlight Short-Term Risk in NU
• 200-day average: 12.37 (below current price)
• RSI: 32.95 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.204 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at 11.63 (critical support)

Technical indicators suggest a high-probability breakdown below $11.63, with the RSI in oversold territory and MACD confirming bearish momentum. The Global X Brazil Active ETF (BRAZ) and iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), both down 1.56% and 0.57% respectively, reflect regional market weakness that could exacerbate NU’s decline. Aggressive bears should focus on the options chain, where two contracts stand out:

• NU20250815P11.5 (Put, $11.50 strike, 8/15 expiration):
- IV: 88.57% (elevated)
- Leverage ratio: 41.21% (high)
- Delta: -0.334 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0085 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2939 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 34,833 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0.425 (max(0, 11.50 - 11.33))
This put offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a sharp breakdown below $11.50.

• NU20250822P11.5 (Put, $11.50 strike, 8/22 expiration):
- IV: 65.18% (reasonable)
- Leverage ratio: 34.14% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.346 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0057 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.2612 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 2,706 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0.425 (max(0, 11.50 - 11.33))
This contract balances leverage and liquidity, suitable for a mid-term bearish play.

Aggressive bears may consider NU20250815P11.5 into a breakdown below $11.63.

Backtest Nu Holdings Stock Performance
The performance of NU after a -3% intraday plunge can be evaluated by considering the following factors:1. Technical Support Levels: The stock's technical support levels at $13.37 (intraday low) and $13.41 (post-plunge close) are crucial. These levels can act as a floor, influencing further price movements. If these levels are breached, it could trigger additional selling pressure.2. Analyst Sentiments: Analysts have forecasted an average target price of $14.05, with a high estimate of $19.00 and a low estimate of $7.70. This suggests a potential upside from the current price, which could be influenced by the company's strategic investments and growth prospects.3. Market Sentiment and Sector Performance: The broader market sentiment and sector performance can also impact NU's stock price. It's important to consider the overall market conditions and how they might affect the stock's trajectory. Additionally, sector-specific factors, such as those affecting Cheer Holding, should be monitored for any systemic impacts.4. Fundamental Analysis: NU's fundamental performance, including its revenue growth, profitability, and strategic investments, should be assessed. The company's focus on sustainable profitability and scalable monetization could influence its long-term stock price if these strategies are successful.In conclusion, while a -3% intraday plunge may present a short-term opportunity for investors to buy at lower prices, the overall performance of NU will depend on a combination of technical, analyst, market, and fundamental factors. It's important for investors to consider these various elements when evaluating NU's performance after the plunge.

Act Now: Short-Term Bearish Setup in NU as Support Levels Near $11.63
Nu Holdings’ technicals and options positioning confirm a high-probability breakdown below $11.63, with the RSI in oversold territory and MACD divergence amplifying risks. The $11.50 put options (8/15 and 8/22) offer optimal leverage and liquidity for aggressive bears. U.S. Bancorp (USB)’s 0.96% decline highlights sector fragility, but NU’s bearish momentum is more acute. Watch for a breakdown below $11.63 or a 5% downside move into the $11.33 level.