Nu Holdings Slumps 4.47% as Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum

Nu Holdings (NU) commenced this analysis with a 4.47% decline in its most recent trading session, closing at $13.03 after fluctuating between $12.72 and $13.55. This immediate context informs the following comprehensive technical assessment, utilizing the mandated framework.
Candlestick Theory
Recent Nu Holdings price action reveals noteworthy patterns. The session ending 2025-07-10 formed a bearish candle with a long upper wick, suggesting rejection near the $13.55 level following the prior day's indecisive spinning top. This reinforces resistance in the $13.50-$13.70 zone established over several sessions, including the 2025-07-09 high ($13.85). Significant historical support appears near $12.00, anchored by the cluster of lows around June 2025 (e.g., $11.83 on 2025-06-13, $12.00 on 2025-06-12), while the $12.72 low from the last session offers immediate near-term support. A breakdown below $12.70 could signal a test of the stronger $12.00 area.
Moving Average Theory
Key moving averages suggest a challenged trend environment. The latest close ($13.03) is tentatively positioned below a calculated 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) approximating $13.20-$13.30, falling further below a declining 100-day SMA near $13.50 and a flattening 200-day SMA estimated around $13.00-$13.10. This positioning below all three major SMAs typically signals near-term bearishness. Price action oscillating around a flat 200-day SMA suggests a longer-term lack of decisive trend direction. The proximity of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs converging in the $13.00-$13.30 zone creates a significant technical pivot area; sustained trading below this cluster would be distinctly bearish.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Momentum indicators point towards weakness. The simulated Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), applying standard periods (12,26,9), appears to be crossing below its signal line in negative territory – a classic bearish signal confirming recent downward momentum. Concurrently, the simulated KDJ Oscillator suggests Nu Holdings may be approaching oversold territory (potentially K and D dipping below 30 soon), although it hasn't confirmed an oversold crossover yet. While the MACD shows current downward pressure, the developing oversold KDJ condition indicates potential for a minor relief bounce, though this needs confirmation from other signals.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has recently expanded modestly. As price declined to $13.03, it moved towards the lower Bollinger Band (typically set at 20 periods, 2 std dev), which can act as support. The bands had shown some contraction in the preceding days, suggesting the recent price drop may have initiated a new phase of increased volatility. A close decisively below the lower band would signal extreme weakness and potentially accelerating selling pressure. Conversely, a rebound from near the lower band, especially accompanied by higher volume, might suggest a short-term stabilization attempt.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns offer validation clues. The significant decline of 4.47% on 2025-07-10 was accompanied by elevated trading volume (over 110 million shares) – the highest volume session in recent weeks. This higher volume sell-off lends credence to the bearish implications of the price drop, suggesting substantial distribution. Comparatively, the strong rally day on 2025-06-24 (+8.83%) and the large volume session on 2025-06-30 (+3.55%) also featured high volume, supporting their bullish nature at the time. This volume pattern confirms selling pressure has strengthened substantially at current levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The simulated RSI (14-period) calculation based on price changes indicates Nu Holdings is shifting towards an oversold condition. Currently estimated near the 35-40 range (significantly lower than its overbought peak above 70 in mid-May 2025), it suggests downward momentum is strengthening but hasn't yet reached extreme oversold levels (<30). While not oversold, its downward trajectory reinforces the current bearish bias. A fall below 30 would warrant close monitoring for potential exhaustion signals, though oversold markets can remain oversold.
Fibonacci Retracement
Establishing trend lines between the significant peak observed around November 2024 (approx. $16.00 - using 2024-11-11 high of $16.015 as proxy) and the subsequent major trough around June 2025 (low of $11.83 on 2025-06-13) reveals key retracement levels. The 50% retracement level sits near $13.92, while the 61.8% Fibonacci level is near $14.55. Crucially, the more significant 38.2% retracement level resides near $13.20-$13.25. Nu Holdings recently tested this zone (touching $13.85 on 2025-07-09 and $13.55 on 2025-07-10) and faced rejection, validating it as a strong resistance barrier. Failure to breach the 38.2% level reinforces the downtrend bias established since last fall.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluent bearish signals are prominent: price rejection at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (~$13.20-$13.25) coincides with resistance near converging 50-day and 200-day SMAs and recent candlestick resistance. This zone is further validated by high-volume selling pushing the price below these levels. The negative MACD crossover and declining RSI into neutral territory add further weight to the bearish case. Presently, no significant positive divergences are evident among the core indicators, offering scant technical evidence for an imminent trend reversal upwards. The collective technical evidence strongly suggests ongoing bearish control, with key support now tested near $12.70-$12.50 and major support residing around $12.00.