Nu Holdings Plunges 5.96% to $12.00 Amid Technical Breakdown

Nu Holdings (NU) concluded the latest session at $12.00, declining 5.96% on elevated volume of 65.96 million shares. This bearish move tested critical technical levels, prompting a multifaceted analysis to evaluate future price trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals critical technical thresholds. The June 12 session printed a long red candle closing near its low ($11.99-$12.59 range), confirming seller dominance. Significant resistance now converges near $13.13 (May 19 peak), while immediate support resides at $11.99 (June 12 low). A confirmed breach below $11.99 could extend declines toward the March-April consolidation zone near $11.70. The lack of bullish reversal patterns like hammers or engulfing candles reinforces the bearish near-term bias.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average structure shows deteriorating momentum. The 50-day SMA ($12.38) recently crossed below the 100-day SMA ($12.15), triggering a bearish "death cross" signal. Current price trades below all three key moving averages (50/100/200-day), with the 200-day SMA ($11.80) now acting as final major support. The expanding distance between price and the declining 50-day SMA reinforces negative near-term momentum. Only a sustained recovery above the 100-day SMA would neutralize this bearish setup.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) maintains a bearish trajectory below both its signal line and the zero line, with histogram bars extending negatively – indicating strengthening downward momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (9,3,3) shows K-value at 18 and D-value at 24, nearing oversold territory (<20). This divergence between MACD's bearish momentum and KDJ's oversold warning suggests potential short-term consolidation, though absent reversal confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Price recently breached the lower Bollinger Band ($12.05, 20-day SMA basis), typically signaling oversold conditions. Bandwidth expansion during the June 11-12 selloff reflects increasing volatility. A sustained position below the lower band historically precedes either extended declines or mean-reversion bounces. The mid-band ($12.45) now becomes initial resistance, while the upper band ($12.90) aligns with the 50-day SMA resistance zone.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns reveal concerning distribution signals. The June 11 rally to $12.76 occurred on year-to-date record volume (85.04M shares), yet immediately reversed on high volume (65.96M) – a classic "buying climax" suggesting exhaustion. Down days have consistently shown higher volume than up days throughout May-June, confirming institutional distribution. This volume structure undermines recovery sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at 32, approaching oversold territory (sub-30), though not yet at extreme levels. This reading occurs as prices test new lows – lacking bullish divergence. Historically, NU required RSI readings below 25 (April trough) to establish significant bottoms. The current setup suggests downside room remains before reaching historic reversal zones. Traders should monitor for divergence formation before anticipating reversals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the major rally from April's $11.71 low to May's $13.14 high reveals critical retracement supports: 38.2% ($12.58) breached decisively, 50% ($12.42) now serving as resistance, and 61.8% ($12.26) tested intraday on June 12. This breakdown suggests potential extension toward the 78.6% retracement at $12.00 – precisely the June 12 close price. Should this level fail, the full 100% retracement to $11.71 comes into play.
Confluence & Forward Outlook
Multiple technical elements converge bearishly: Death cross confirmation, Bollinger Band breakdown, and volume-backed failure at Fib resistance. While KDJ and RSI approach oversold levels, the absence of bullish divergences or reversal patterns suggests further downside remains probable. Critical monitoring zones include the $12.00 Fib confluence (June 12 low) for potential breakdown, with $11.71 as the next major support. A recovery above the 50% Fib ($12.42) and 100-day SMA would be necessary to invalidate the bearish structure.