Nu Holdings Plummets 3.4% Amid Earnings Volatility and Credit Risk Jitters

Summary
• Nu Holdings (NU) slumps 3.43% to $11.945, trading below its 200-day moving average of $12.33
• Intraday range of $11.92–$12.32 highlights sharp sell-off amid earnings uncertainty
• Turnover surges to 40.55 million shares, 1.22% of float, signaling heightened short-term volatility
• RSI at 40.87 suggests oversold territory, but bearish momentum persists with MACD at -0.2025
Today’s sharp decline for Nu Holdings reflects a volatile mix of earnings anticipation and sector-specific concerns. With the stock trading below its 200-day MA and facing key technical levels, the move underscores investor skepticism about balancing rapid customer acquisition with credit quality. The 52-week range of $9.01–$16.145 adds urgency to near-term price action.

Earnings Volatility and Credit Risk Concerns Drive NU's Sharp Decline
Nu Holdings' 3.43% drop stems from a confluence of factors: the release of Q2 2025 earnings, which investors fear may highlight unsustainable credit expansion, and broader sector jitters. The company’s rapid Latin American growth—driven by digital banking and loan products—has raised red flags about non-performing loans. Recent news of Roberto Campos Neto’s appointment as Global Head of Public Policy signals a focus on regulatory alignment, but investors remain wary of balancing expansion with risk management. The stock’s intraday low of $11.92 near the lower Bollinger Band ($11.60) amplifies short-term bearish sentiment.

Regional Banks Mixed as JPMorgan Outperforms
Regional banks face a dual challenge: rising interest rates improving net interest margins versus fintech competition and credit deterioration. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the sector leader, is up 0.95687192% today, outperforming NU’s 3.43% decline. While NU’s credit risk concerns weigh, peers like UMB Financial (UMBF) and Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) have shown resilience in Q2 earnings. However, NU’s digital banking model remains under scrutiny for its aggressive loan growth and regulatory exposure.

NU’s Technicals and Options Playbook: Navigating Earnings Volatility
• RSI: 40.87 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.2025 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $13.49, Middle $12.55, Lower $11.60
• 200-day MA: $12.33 (current price below)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $12.21–$12.25, 200D $11.86–$11.99

NU’s technicals paint a bearish near-term picture. The RSI in oversold territory suggests potential for a rebound, but the MACD’s negative divergence and price below the 200-day MA favor caution. Key levels to watch: the 200-day support at $11.86 and the 30-day resistance at $12.25. The options chain offers two high-conviction plays:

• NU20250822P12 (Put Option)
- Strike: $12 | Expiration: 2025-08-22 | IV: 71.64% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 23.12% | Delta: -0.4665 | Theta: -0.000999 | Gamma: 0.2939 | Turnover: 27,236
- IV (high volatility) and Gamma (price sensitivity) make this ideal for a 5% downside scenario. A 5% drop to $11.40 would yield a put payoff of $0.60 per share.

• NU20250822C13 (Call Option)
- Strike: $13 | Expiration: 2025-08-22 | IV: 72.24% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 57.26% | Delta: 0.2672 | Theta: -0.039074 | Gamma: 0.2411 | Turnover: 52,150
- Leverage and IV position this for a rebound above $12.55. A 5% upside to $12.60 would result in a call payoff of $0.60 per share.

Aggressive bulls may consider NU20250822C13 into a bounce above $12.55.

Backtest Nu Holdings Stock Performance
The backtest of NU's performance after an intraday plunge of -3% shows favorable results, with the 3-Day win rate at 59.08%, the 10-Day win rate at 63.54%, and the 30-Day win rate at 69.59%. This indicates that NU tends to recover and even exceed its previous levels in the short term following a significant downturn.

NU at Crossroads: Watch for Breakdown or Breakout
Nu Holdings’ 3.43% decline underscores the delicate balance between growth and risk in digital banking. While technicals suggest a near-term bearish bias, the options market hints at potential for a rebound or further downside. Investors should monitor the Q2 2025 earnings report for clarity on credit quality and customer acquisition costs. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the sector leader, is up 0.95687192%, signaling broader financial sector resilience. Watch for a breakdown below $11.86 or a breakout above $12.55 to dictate next steps.