Novo Nordisk Surges 8.11% on Historic FDA Approval of Oral Wegovy – What’s Next for the Obesity Drug Giant?

Summary
• FDA clears first-ever oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug, sparking 9% rally in NVO shares
• Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy outperforms Eli Lilly’s injectable rival in Phase 3 trials
• Defiance Daily Target 2X Long NVO ETF (NVOX) jumps 16.32% on regulatory optimism

Novo Nordisk (NVO) surged 8.11% to $52.005 on Tuesday, fueled by the FDA’s historic approval of its oral Wegovy. The stock traded between $51.75 and $53.195, marking a pivotal moment in the obesity drug race. With Eli Lilly’s (LLY) oral contender still pending, NVO’s first-mover advantage has ignited a frenzy in the pharma sector.

FDA Clears Wegovy Oral Pill – A Game-Changer for Novo Nordisk
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s approval of Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy (semaglutide) catalyzed the 8.11% intraday surge. This marks the first oral GLP-1 therapy authorized for chronic weight management, offering a significant convenience edge over injectables. Clinical data from the OASIS 4 trial showed patients lost 16.6% of body weight over 64 weeks, far outpacing the 2.7% placebo group. The pill’s $149/month cash price and planned January 2026 U.S. launch position Novo Nordisk to dominate a market where Eli Lilly’s orforglipron remains in regulatory limbo.

Pharma Sector Reacts as Novo Nordisk Outpaces Rivals
While Novo Nordisk’s shares surged, the broader pharmaceutical sector remained mixed. Sector leader Eli Lilly (LLY) dipped 0.28% as investors reassessed its competitive position. Meanwhile, Pfizer’s recent layoffs and Teva’s patent delistings highlighted sector-wide cost-cutting pressures. NVO’s regulatory win underscores the obesity drug market’s strategic importance, with Novo Nordisk now poised to capture early adopters ahead of LLY’s anticipated 2026 launch.

Options and ETFs to Watch: Capitalizing on NVO’s Volatility
• 200-day average: $60.68 (well below current price)
• RSI: 53.46 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signal)
• MACD: -0.319 (bearish) vs. signal line -0.438 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $50.85 (upper), $48.15 (middle), $45.44 (lower) – price near upper band
• Defiance Daily Target 2X Long NVO ETF (NVOX): Up 16.32%, amplifying NVO’s 8.11% move

With NVO trading near its 52-week high of $93.80 and a dynamic P/E of 14.58, the stock is in a breakout phase. Key support at $47.56 and resistance at $68.78 (200D MA) define the near-term range. The Defiance NVOX ETF offers 2X leverage for aggressive bulls, though its 16.32% gain already reflects much of the FDA optimism.

Top Options Picks:
• NVO20260102C47 (Call):
- Strike: $47 | Expiry: 2026-01-02 | IV: 35.56% | Leverage: 9.65% | Delta: 0.9527 | Theta: -0.0277 | Gamma: 0.0302 | Turnover: 95,881
- IV (35.56%): Reflects moderate volatility expectations
- Leverage (9.65%): Amplifies gains if NVO holds above $47
- Delta (0.9527): High sensitivity to price moves
- Gamma (0.0302): Strong sensitivity to price acceleration
- Turnover (95,881): High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
- Payoff at 5% upside ($54.60): $7.60 per contract, a 167% gain from current $4.53 premium
- This call is ideal for holding through January 2026, capitalizing on NVO’s momentum and Wegovy’s launch.

• NVO20260102C48.5 (Call):
- Strike: $48.5 | Expiry: 2026-01-02 | IV: 41.93% | Leverage: 13.48% | Delta: 0.8416 | Theta: -0.0558 | Gamma: 0.0635 | Turnover: 63,231
- IV (41.93%): Suggests higher volatility premium
- Leverage (13.48%): Aggressive payoff if NVO breaks $48.50
- Delta (0.8416): Strong directional exposure
- Gamma (0.0635): High sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover (63,231): Solid liquidity for active trading
- Payoff at 5% upside ($54.60): $6.10 per contract, a 134% gain from $4.53 premium
- This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a 5–6% price target.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider NVO20260102C47 into a breakout above $48.50, while NVO20260102C48.5 offers a high-gamma play for a 5% upside.

Backtest Novo Nordisk Stock Performance
The backtest of Novo Nordisk's (NVO) performance after an 8% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates mixed results. While the 3-Day, 10-Day, and 30-Day win rates are relatively high, the actual returns over these periods are modest, and the maximum return during the backtest period was only 1.34%, which occurred on day 59 of the backtest. This suggests that while NVO has a tendency to move higher in the short term following an 8% surge, the overall impact on long-term returns is muted.

Act Now: NVO’s Breakout Could Reshape the Obesity Market – Here’s How to Position
Novo Nordisk’s 8.11% surge on FDA approval of oral Wegovy signals a strategic inflection point in the obesity drug market. With Eli Lilly’s LLY down 0.28% and trailing in regulatory approval, NVO’s first-mover advantage is critical. Investors should monitor the $47.56 support level and $68.78 200D MA resistance. For those seeking leverage, the Defiance NVOX ETF and the NVO20260102C47 call offer compelling entry points. Watch for $48.50 as a key threshold—breaking this could validate NVO’s long-term bullish case.