Novo Nordisk Surges 7% on FDA Approval of Wegovy Pill – What’s Next for NVO?

Summary
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) surges 7.04% intraday to $51.485, breaking above its 52-week low of $43.08
• FDA approves first-ever GLP-1 pill, giving Novo a head start over Eli Lilly
• Defiance Daily Target 2X Long NVO ETF (NVOX) jumps 14.09%
• Intraday range: $51.33 (low) to $53.195 (high), with $536.26M turnover
Novo Nordisk’s stock is in a frenzy as the FDA greenlights its Wegovy pill, a first-in-class oral GLP-1 therapy. The approval, coupled with strategic pricing partnerships and clinical data outpacing rivals, has triggered a sharp rebound. With the stock trading near its 52-week low, the move raises questions about sustainability and positioning for 2026.

FDA Approval Ignites Bullish Momentum
The FDA’s December 22, 2025, approval of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill—a first-of-its-kind oral GLP-1 therapy—catalyzed the 7.04% intraday surge. This regulatory win positions Novo ahead of Eli Lilly’s competing pill, which is expected to file for approval in Q1 2026. Clinical data highlights Wegovy’s 16.6% average weight loss in trials, outperforming Lilly’s injectable Zepbound. Additionally, Novo’s partnership with TrumpRx for $149/month pricing and its strategic execution edge, as noted by HSBC’s Rajesh Kumar, have amplified investor optimism. The move reflects a pivot from earlier 2025 struggles, including supply chain issues and Ozempic demand softness, to a renewed focus on oral obesity treatments.

Pharma Sector Volatility Amid Regulatory Shifts
The broader pharmaceutical sector remains mixed, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), the sector leader, down 0.94% intraday. Novo’s outperformance underscores the sector’s bifurcation: while traditional pharma giants face earnings pressures, innovation-driven peers like Novo benefit from regulatory milestones. The FDA’s accelerated approval of novel therapies—particularly in obesity and diabetes—has created a divergence, with investors favoring companies with first-mover advantages in high-growth therapeutic areas.

Leveraged ETF and Options Playbook for NVO’s Volatility
• 200-day average: $60.68 (well below current price)
• RSI: 53.46 (neutral, suggesting potential for further upside)
• MACD: -0.319 (bearish), but histogram shows positive divergence
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $51.485, above the middle band ($48.146)
• Defiance Daily Target 2X Long NVO ETF (NVOX): A 2x leveraged vehicle to amplify exposure to NVO’s volatility. With NVOX up 14.09% today, it reflects the ETF’s sensitivity to Novo’s sharp move.

Top Options Picks:
1. NVO20260102C47 (Call, $47 strike, Jan 2 2026):
• IV ratio: 103.50% (high, indicating strong volatility)
• Leverage ratio: 9.51% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.7155 (high, aligns with bullish bias)
• Theta: -0.1430 (high time decay, suitable for short-term holding)
• Gamma: 0.0368 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 95,881 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside (54.01): $7.01/share. This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of today’s rally.

2. NVO20260102P48 (Put, $48 strike, Jan 2 2026):
• IV ratio: 30.12% (reasonable)
• Leverage ratio: 394.15% (extreme, for aggressive downside protection)
• Delta: -0.1002 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: -0.0175 (low time decay, suitable for longer holding)
• Gamma: 0.0656 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 94,864 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside (54.01): $6.01/share. This put provides a high-leverage hedge against a potential pullback, given the stock’s proximity to key support levels.

Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls should consider NVO20260102C47 into a break above $53.195 (intraday high). Cautious investors may use NVO20260102P48 to lock in gains if the stock tests the 200-day average at $60.68.

Backtest Novo Nordisk Stock Performance
The backtest of Novo Nordisk's (NVO) performance after a 7% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day and 10-day win rates are above 50%, the 30-day win rate is slightly higher at 59.20%, indicating that NVO tends to perform well in the short term following a significant price surge. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 1.31%, which suggests that while NVO can experience gains, they are generally modest.

Positioning for NVO’s 2026 Launch Window
Novo Nordisk’s 7% surge reflects a pivotal shift in its narrative, driven by the Wegovy pill’s regulatory win and strategic pricing. While the stock remains below its 52-week high of $93.8, the technical setup—RSI neutrality and positive MACD divergence—suggests further upside potential. Investors should monitor the 200-day average at $60.68 as a critical resistance level and watch Johnson & Johnson’s (-0.94%) performance for sector-wide cues. For now, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long NVO ETF (NVOX) and the NVO20260102C47 call offer the most compelling entry points. Watch for a break above $53.195 or a pullback to the 52-week low of $43.08 to confirm the trend.