Novo Nordisk Plummets 2.75% as Guidance Cut Sparks Investor Exodus – What’s Next for the GLP-1 Giant?

Summary
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) slumps 2.75% intraday to $46.925, its lowest since April 2025
• Q3 sales miss by $400M, Wegovy underperforms by $200M
• Guidance narrowed to 8–11% growth, down from 8–14% in July
• Sector peers like Eli Lilly (LLY) rally 5.08% as pharma sector splits

Novo Nordisk’s stock has plunged to a 13-month low amid a third guidance cut this year, driven by slowing demand for its GLP-1 drugs and pricing pressures. The Danish pharma giant’s Q3 results revealed a $400M revenue shortfall and a 26% earnings drop, triggering a sharp selloff. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $45.05, investors are now scrutinizing whether the GLP-1 market’s growth has peaked.

GLP-1 Fatigue and Pricing Pressures Trigger Sell-Off
Novo Nordisk’s 2.75% intraday decline stems from a third downward revision to its 2025 sales guidance, now projecting 8–11% growth versus 16–24% initially expected. Q3 results revealed $11.54B in sales, missing estimates by $400M, with Wegovy’s $3.13B revenue falling $200M short of forecasts. CEO Mike Doustdar cited 'lower growth expectations for GLP-1 treatments' as the primary cause, signaling waning demand and looming pricing risks. The stock’s 2.75% drop mirrors broader investor anxiety over the sustainability of GLP-1 blockbuster profits as competition intensifies and regulatory scrutiny mounts.

Pharma Sector Splits as Eli Lilly Surges, Novo Slides
While Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 fatigue drags its shares lower, sector leader Eli Lilly (LLY) surges 5.08% on strong insulin and Mounjaro sales. AbbVie’s recent revenue forecast hike to $60.9B also highlights divergent performance within the sector. The FDA’s new biosimilar reforms, aimed at cutting biologic drug costs, further amplify pricing risks for Novo’s GLP-1 portfolio. This contrast underscores the sector’s bifurcation: innovators with diversified pipelines (like Lilly) outperforming peers reliant on single blockbuster drugs.

Bearish Options Playbook: NVO20251114P48 and NVO20251114P49 Lead the Way
• 200-day MA: $66.85 (far above current price)
• RSI: 12.22 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -2.12 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $46.93 (near lower band at $47.44)

Novo Nordisk’s technicals confirm a deepening bearish trend, with price near its 52-week low and RSI in oversold territory. Key support levels at $47.44 (lower Bollinger Band) and $45.05 (52W low) are critical to watch. The 200-day MA at $66.85 remains a distant target for bulls, but short-term momentum favors bears. With no leveraged ETFs available, options offer the best leverage for directional bets.

• NVO20251114P48 (Put, $48 strike, Nov 14 expiry)
- IV: 56.35% (moderate)
- LVR: 20.53% (high)
- Delta: -0.568 (sensitive to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0589 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0895 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $47,781
- Payoff at 5% downside ($44.58): $3.42/share
- This put offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a 5% drop scenario. The moderate IV ensures reasonable cost while high gamma amplifies gains if the stock breaks below $48.

• NVO20251114P49 (Put, $49 strike, Nov 14 expiry)
- IV: 57.56% (moderate)
- LVR: 15.83% (high)
- Delta: -0.648 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0504 (low decay)
- Gamma: 0.0827 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $70,825
- Payoff at 5% downside ($44.58): $4.42/share
- This contract combines high delta and gamma with low theta decay, making it optimal for a sustained bearish move. The $49 strike offers a balance between leverage and liquidity.

Aggressive bears should prioritize NVO20251114P49 if the stock breaks below $47.44 (lower Bollinger Band). A close below $46.16 (intraday low) would validate the breakdown and justify a shift to NVO20251121P42 for deeper downside exposure.

Backtest Novo Nordisk Stock Performance
Here is the event-study back-test for Novo Nordisk (NVO.N) after any close ≥ 3 % below the previous day (2022-01-01 → 2025-11-05).Key takeaways (30-day analysis window):• Total qualifying events: 52 • Best relative performance appears after 14-20 trading days, where the average cumulative return vs. benchmark becomes statistically positive (≈ +3 – 4 %). • One-day bounce is tiny (≈ +0.2 %) and not significant.Interpretation:Historically, buying NVO.N at the close of a ≥ 3 % down day and holding 2-3 weeks has yielded a modest edge, but the effect fades by day 30. Risk management and market context should still guide any trading implementation.Feel free to explore the interactive report above; it contains the full event timeline and daily statistics.

Novo’s GLP-1 Dilemma: Watch $47.44 Support and Sector Rivals
Novo Nordisk’s 2.75% drop reflects investor skepticism over GLP-1 growth sustainability, but the stock’s technicals suggest further downside risks. Key levels to monitor include $47.44 (lower Bollinger Band) and $45.05 (52W low). A breakdown below $46.16 would confirm a bearish pivot, validating the selected put options. Meanwhile, sector leader Eli Lilly’s 5.08% surge highlights the importance of diversified pipelines in a volatile market. Investors should prioritize NVO20251114P49 for short-term bearish exposure and closely track the FDA’s biosimilar reforms, which could reshape pricing dynamics for GLP-1 drugs. Watch for $47.44 breakdown or regulatory reaction.