Novo Nordisk's Obesity Therapeutics: Sustaining Market Leadership Amid Intensifying Competition

Novo Nordisk has long dominated the obesity therapeutics market with its GLP-1 receptor agonists Wegovy and Ozempic, but the landscape is shifting as competitors like Eli Lilly gain traction. Despite these challenges, Novo's strategic investments, pipeline innovations, and manufacturing scale position it to maintain its leadership role in the $80 billion obesity drug marketObesity Drug Market at a Crossroads: Novo Nordisk Adapts to Rising Competitive Pressures^[1].

Market Leadership and Competitive Pressures

According to a report by Financial Content, Novo Nordisk's obesity care segment generated DKK 20.372 billion in revenue during Q2 2025, with Wegovy's international sales surging 320% year-over-year to DKK 12 billionNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[2]. Ozempic, meanwhile, contributed DKK 64.5 billion in H1 2025, underscoring the enduring demand for GLP-1-based therapies. However, Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based drugs—Zepbound and Mounjaro—have eroded Novo's market share, particularly in the U.S., where Lilly's GLP-1 segment now commands 57% of the marketObesity Pills from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk Near US Launch - CNBC^[3]. This shift reflects tirzepatide's superior weight loss efficacy and more stable supply chain, which have attracted both physicians and patientsWeight Loss Drug Market Faces Changes? Novo Nordisk Holds the Oral Key^[4].

Strategic Initiatives to Reinforce Dominance

To counter these headwinds, Novo Nordisk has implemented a dual strategy: expanding production capacity and accelerating R&D. The company acquired three Catalent fill-finish sites in 2025, a move expected to alleviate supply chain bottlenecks and boost output by 2026Novo Nordisk: Restructuring Sets the Stage for Long-Term^[5]. Simultaneously, Novo announced a restructuring plan involving 9,000 global job cuts, generating $1.25 billion in annual cost savingsNovo Nordisk Eyes Broader Role for Its Obesity Drugs from Sleep Apnea to Knees^[6]. These resources are being redirected toward next-generation therapies, including CagriSema—a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide—which is projected to achieve peak sales of $5–7 billion by 2028Is Novo Nordisk's Next Generation Obesity Pipeline a Game Changer?^[7].

A critical differentiator for Novo is its oral semaglutide formulation, which demonstrated 15.1% weight loss in Phase III trials—surpassing Eli Lilly's orforglipron at 12.4%Obesity Drug Market Faces Changes? Novo Nordisk Holds the Oral Key^[8]. With an FDA approval expected in Q4 2025, this oral variant could enhance patient compliance and reinvigorate Novo's competitive edgeNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[9].

Long-Term Revenue Potential

Analysts project Novo Nordisk's obesity segment will grow at a 16% compound annual rate through 2028, driven by CagriSema's launch in 2027 and expanded indications for semaglutide in conditions like sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritisNovo Nordisk Obesity Breakthrough Signals Next-Generation Therapies^[10]. The obesity care segment already accounts for over 35% of Novo's total revenue, and its robust cash flow—bolstered by strategic acquisitions like Septerna and Inversago—ensures continued R&D investmentNovo Nordisk Predicts Milder Growth in 2025 After Obesity Star Wegovy Doubles Numbers in Q4^[11].

Despite downward revisions to 2025 operating profit growth (4–10%), Novo's long-term financial strength remains intact. Its global manufacturing scale, diversified pipeline, and first-mover advantage in GLP-1 therapies create a durable moat against rivalsObesity Giants Will Begin $80 BlN M&A Face-Off^[12].

Challenges and Risks

The obesity drug market is highly competitive, with compounded alternatives and generic threats emerging. Novo's revised sales guidance to 8–14% growth at constant exchange rates (CER) reflects these pressuresNovo Nordisk Navigates a GLP-1 Gold Rush: Soaring Obesity Drug Sales Clash with Revised Outlook Amidst Mounting Competition^[13]. However, the company's proactive approach—expanding into new therapeutic areas and prioritizing patient access—mitigates these risksNovo Nordisk Eyes Broader Role for Its Obesity Drugs from Sleep Apnea to Knees^[14].

Conclusion

Novo Nordisk's ability to innovate, scale production, and adapt to competitive pressures underscores its long-term investment potential. While Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based therapies pose a near-term challenge, Novo's oral semaglutide, CagriSema, and expanded indications for semaglutide position it to reclaim market share. For investors, the company's strategic resilience and dominant market position in obesity therapeutics make it a compelling long-term bet.