November Cass Data: Signs of Improvement in Freight Market

The Cass Freight Index, a widely recognized measure of North American freight volumes, has shown signs of improvement in its November data. This article explores the key indicators that suggest a potential stabilization in the freight market and their alignment with broader market trends.

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.5% month-over-month (m/m) in November, after two consecutive declines. This increase, along with a 2.8% jump on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, indicates a narrowing of the year-over-year (y/y) decline to 0.7%, the narrowest in 21 months. This improvement suggests that freight volumes are beginning to stabilize.

Expenditures, which measure the total amount spent on freight, also showed signs of improvement. The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.9% m/m, with the y/y decline moderating to 3.8% from 5.9% in October. This improvement indicates a potential stabilization in freight expenditures, aligning with the narrowing y/y declines in freight volumes.

Inferred freight rates, a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data, also showed improvement. Cass Inferred Freight Rates rose 0.4% m/m, with the y/y decline narrowing to 3.1% from 3.6% in October. This improvement suggests that freight costs are beginning to stabilize, reflecting the narrowing y/y declines in freight volumes and expenditures.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a broad truckload market indicator, also showed improvement. The index rose 0.8% m/m, with the y/y decline narrowing to 1.1% from 2.2% in October. This improvement indicates that the truckload market is beginning to stabilize, aligning with the broader trends in the freight market.

These improvements in the Cass Freight Index data align with broader market trends, such as GDP growth and consumer spending. The U.S. GDP-based ACT Freight Composite is on track to rise 3.2% in 2024, reflecting goods economy growth. Additionally, consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. GDP, has been resilient, with retail sales up 4.6% y/y in November. The improving Cass data suggests that businesses are investing in inventory and production, driving demand for freight services and supporting economic growth.

The November Cass Freight Index data shows improvement in several key indicators, suggesting a potential stabilization in the freight market. These improvements align with broader market trends, such as GDP growth and consumer spending, indicating a positive outlook for the freight market and the broader economy.

The Cass Freight Index data for November 2024 shows improvement in shipments, expenditures, and inferred freight rates, indicating a potential stabilization in the freight market. This improvement aligns with broader market trends, such as GDP growth and consumer spending, suggesting a positive outlook for the freight market and the broader economy.