Novavax Soars 15% on FDA Approval and Sanofi Milestone: A Biotech Breakthrough Unfolds?

Summary
• Novavax (NVAX) surges 15% intraday to $7.74, driven by $175M milestone from FDA-approved Nuvaxovid
• Q2 revenue hits $239M, with Sanofi partnership transition complete for 2025-2026 U.S. vaccination season
• Intraday range spans $7.20 to $8.2284, signaling sharp volatility amid strategic milestones
• 52-week high at $15.22 remains distant, but momentum suggests near-term retesting of key levels

Novavax’s stock is in a tailwind-driven ascent, fueled by a $175M milestone payment from Sanofi following FDA approval of its Nuvaxovid vaccine. The biotech’s Q2 revenue of $239M, though down year-over-year, reflects progress in transitioning commercial leadership to Sanofi. With a 15% intraday gain and robust options activity, the stock is poised for a pivotal week as investors weigh regulatory and partnership risks against long-term vaccine pipeline potential.

FDA Approval and Sanofi Milestone Ignite Novavax’s Surge
The 15% intraday rally in NVAX is directly tied to the FDA’s approval of Nuvaxovid, which triggered a $175M milestone payment from Sanofi. This approval marks the first recombinant protein-based, non-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S., positioning Novavax as a key player in the post-pandemic vaccination landscape. Additionally, the transition of U.S. commercial leadership to Sanofi for the 2025-2026 season has eliminated near-term operational risks, while the $50M in combined milestones from EU and U.S. marketing authorizations in Q4 2025 adds further upside. Positive Phase 3 trial data for influenza vaccine candidates and partnerships with Takeda and Serum Institute of India further reinforce the stock’s momentum.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on NVAX’s Volatility
• MACD: -0.0244 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.0520 (neutral), Histogram: -0.0765 (divergence)
• RSI: 45.15 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: Upper $7.69, Middle $7.05, Lower $6.40
• 200D MA: $7.77 (current price slightly below), 30D MA: $6.90 (support)
• Key Levels: 200D MA at $7.77 (resistance), 30D MA at $6.90 (support)

Top Options Picks:
1. NVAX20250815C7.5 (Call, $7.5 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 70.84% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 15.23% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.6423 (high sensitivity to price)
- Theta: -0.0359 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.40999 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $22,740 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($8.127): $0.627 per share (70% gain).
- Why: High gamma and delta make this call ideal for short-term bullish bets as NVAX tests $7.77 resistance.

2. NVAX20250815C8 (Call, $8 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 73.54% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 27.73% (aggressive)
- Delta: 0.4307 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0315 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.41567 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $70,335 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% Upside ($8.127): $0.127 per share (127% gain).
- Why: High leverage and gamma suit aggressive traders expecting a breakout above $8.00.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider NVAX20250815C8 into a bounce above $8.00, while conservative traders can target NVAX20250815C7.5 for a controlled play on the 200D MA breakout.

Backtest Novavax Stock Performance
The backtest of NVAX's performance following a 15% intraday increase shows a significant underperformance. The strategy resulted in a -96.72% return, vastly underperforming the benchmark return of 84.41%. The excess return was -181.13%, and the CAGR was -50.25%, indicating a substantial loss in both absolute and relative terms.

NVAX at a Pivotal Crossroads: Momentum or Mean Reversion?
Novavax’s 15% surge is a mix of regulatory validation and partnership progress, but technicals suggest caution. The RSI at 45.15 indicates oversold conditions, yet the MACD divergence hints at potential near-term consolidation. Investors should watch the 200D MA at $7.77 as a critical resistance level; a break above this could trigger a retest of the 52-week high at $15.22. Conversely, a pullback below the 30D MA at $6.90 would signal renewed bearishness. With Moderna (MRNA) down 2.6% as the sector leader, biotech investors must balance NVAX’s momentum with sector-wide risks. Act now: Target NVAX20250815C8 for a high-leverage play on the $8.00 breakout, or short-term traders can scalp the 200D MA test.