Novavax Surges 11.88% on FDA Approval and Strategic Shifts: What’s Fueling This Biotech Rally?

Summary
• Novavax (NVAX) surges 11.88% intraday to $7.53, hitting a high of $8.2284 and low of $7.20.
• $175M milestone payment from Sanofi triggered by FDA approval of Nuvaxovid™ vaccine.
• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $1B–$1.05B, driven by partnership transitions and pipeline progress.

Novavax’s stock is in a tailwind after a landmark quarter marked by regulatory milestones, partnership transitions, and robust pipeline data. The biotech’s shares surged over 11% on the back of FDA approval for its flagship vaccine, a $175M milestone from Sanofi, and updated financial guidance. With a 52-week high of $15.22 still in reach, investors are weighing whether this rally is a breakout or a short-term spike.

FDA Approval and Partnership Transitions Ignite Novavax’s Rally
Novavax’s 11.88% intraday surge was catalyzed by three key events: (1) FDA approval of Nuvaxovid™, triggering a $175M milestone payment from Sanofi; (2) the transition of U.S. commercial leadership of Nuvaxovid to Sanofi for the 2025–2026 season; and (3) positive Phase 3 data for its influenza vaccine candidates. These developments validated the company’s strategic pivot from standalone commercialization to partnership-driven growth. The $175M milestone alone accounted for 76% of Q2 2025 licensing revenue, while the pipeline updates—particularly the T-cell response data outperforming Fluzone HD—rekindled investor confidence in Novavax’s technology platform.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Gamma-Driven Moves
• 200-day average: 7.769 (above current price); RSI: 45.15 (neutral); MACD: -0.024 (bearish divergence); Bollinger Bands: 6.40–7.69 (current price near upper band).
• Gamma: 0.395 (high sensitivity to price swings); Theta: -0.0265 (moderate time decay); IV: 73.88% (elevated but not extreme).

Top Options Contracts:
• NVAX20250815C7.5 (Call, $7.5 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 71.22% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 20.34% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5386 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.033155 (accelerating time decay)
- Gamma: 0.4476 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: $28,645 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $7.906): $0.406 per contract. This call option offers a balance of gamma and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet as the stock tests resistance near $8.22.
• NVAX20250815C8 (Call, $8 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- IV: 73.88% (elevated)
- Leverage Ratio: 39.61% (high)
- Delta: 0.3336 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.0265 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.3953 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $84,501 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $7.906): $0.906 per contract. This contract’s high leverage and gamma make it a potent play if the stock breaks above $8.22, with theta decay manageable for a 1-week horizon.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize NVAX20250815C7.5 for a gamma-driven rally into $8.22. Conservative traders may use NVAX20250815C8 as a high-leverage play if the stock closes above $8.00. Both contracts benefit from elevated IV and strong gamma, but liquidity in the $8 strike is critical for entry/exit.

Backtest Novavax Stock Performance
Following a 12% intraday increase, NVAX experienced a significant decline, with a strategy return of -96.72% and a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, indicating a complete loss of the initial investment and no further downside risk.

Novavax’s Rally: A Strategic Inflection Point or Short-Term Spike?
Novavax’s 11.88% surge reflects a strategic inflection point driven by FDA approval, milestone payments, and pipeline validation. However, technical indicators like the bearish MACD and 200-day average above current price suggest caution. The $8.22 intraday high is a critical resistance level; a break above this could reignite momentum, while a pullback to the 7.04–7.20 range may test near-term resolve. Investors should monitor the NVAX20250815C7.5 and NVAX20250815C8 options for directional bets, while keeping an eye on Moderna (MRNA, -3.64% change) as a sector benchmark. Act now: If $8.22 holds, consider adding to the rally; if not, pivot to defensive plays in the biotech sector.