Novartis Raises 2030 Growth Targets Amid Analysts' Doubts Over Patent Risks

Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis AG (NOVN.SW) has revised its mid-term sales growth projections, forecasting annual currency-adjusted revenue increases of 5% to 6% through 2030, driven by elevated peak sales expectations for key oncology drugs Kisqali and Scemblix. The updated guidance, announced during a management event in London, reflects confidence in the company's portfolio despite looming patent expirations for flagship products like Cosentyx and Entresto. CEO Vas Narasimhan emphasized the strength of Novartis's pipeline, which includes eight de-risked drugs with $3–$10 billion peak sales potential and over 30 high-value development candidates.

Analysts remain divided on the sustainability of Novartis's growth. While Vontobel's Stefan Schneider praised the company's consistent execution on commitments and upgraded sales targets for Kisqali ($10 billion peak) and Scemblix ($4 billion peak), J.P. Morgan highlighted risks tied to patent expirations and uncertain drug pipeline progress beyond 2030. The firm noted that achieving 2030 sales of $72.4 billion would require significant success in clinical trials and regulatory approvals. Shares of Novartis rose 0.5% following the announcement, with the stock up 16% year-to-date.

The pharmaceutical sector showed mixed momentum in pre-market trading. Exact Sciences surged over 17% after Abbott Laboratories agreed to acquire the liquid biopsy firm for $105 per share. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed more than 5% on the release of new GPU systems powered by AMD's Instinct MI355X hardware.

Samsung Biologics, a South Korean contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO), is poised for growth following the spin-off of its biosimilar division. IBK Securities analyst Yisoo Jeong argued that the separation could attract more CDMO contracts by alleviating client concerns about intellectual property exposure to Samsung's in-house drug development. The move has prompted a 71% re-rating in the firm's valuation, according to the analyst.

Novartis's updated guidance also underscored the importance of its upcoming catalysts. The company expects over 15 submission-enabling readouts in the next two years, including data from its late-stage oncology and rare disease programs. However, J.P. Morgan cautioned that pricing pressures in the U.S. for Kisqali could emerge as a headwind, particularly if the drug is included in Medicare price negotiations.