NovaGold's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Feasibility Study Delays, Funding Uncertainties, and Permit Timelines

The above is the analysis of the conflicting points in this earnings call

Guidance:

• Donlin Gold 2025 budget $43M unchanged; NG pro rata $24M post 60% stake.
• 2025 corporate G&A guided to $18M (from $16M).
• Award bankable feasibility study by year-end 2025; commence 2026; finish in 18–24 months; construction decision thereafter.
• Construction expected to take ~4 years; target commercial production ~2031.
• Remaining state permits (tailings dam/water retention) expected well before BFS completion; preliminary design submitted.
• Alaska Supreme Court rulings on water rights/pipeline/401 anticipated in 2026; federal NEPA remand underway.
• Evaluating financing options, including potential royalty/stream, offtake, and sovereign wealth fund participation.

Business Commentary:

* Stock Performance and Strategic Asset: - NovaGold Resources' stock price has increased significantly, moving from lows of $2 to $3 earlier this year to close to double digits, with the potential to double again to reach $12 to $15. - This upward trajectory is attributed to a strategic alignment with a new partner, John Paulson, which sparked a revaluation of the company.

• Large-Scale Gold Project Progress:
• NovaGold is advancing towards building the largest single gold mine in the United States, the Donlin Gold project.

• The progress is supported by strong exploration results and a bankable feasibility study expected to commence in 2026, with commercial production targeted for 2031.

• Gold Market Outlook and U.S. Jurisdictional Safety:

• The gold market is viewed as entering a major bull market, with gold's status as a safe haven asset and its undervalued status in the United States making the project more attractive.

• NovaGold's focus on a strategic U.S. location enhances the project's appeal to investors, providing a safe jurisdictional environment for significant investments.

• Donlin Gold Project Attributes:

• The Donlin Gold project boasts a high-grade ore body with an average grade of 2.25 grams per tonne, with significant exploration potential.
• Supported by strong environmental, social, and governance practices, and a stable political environment in Alaska, the project is seen as a low-cost, high-return opportunity.

Sentiment Analysis:

• “We are building the path to what will be… the largest single gold mine in the United States.” “We completed the 18,000+ meter drill program… initial results confirming consistent mineralization.” “Remaining state permits… anticipated well in advance of completing the bankable feasibility study.” “Commercial production somewhere around the year 2031.” Management highlighted aligned ownership, active permitting, robust drilling results, and clear development timelines.

Q&A:

• Question from Sandra Iyer (B. Riley Securities): How do the top drill results compare to your resource model expectations and orebody continuity?
  Response: Drilling intersected mineralization in areas previously modeled as waste; average intercepts came in just under 4 g/t vs. 2.25 g/t reserve grade, reinforcing continuity and upside.

• Question from Sandra Iyer (B. Riley Securities): Will these drill results be incorporated into the resource before the feasibility study?
  Response: Remaining assays will be released within a month and incorporated into the geologic model supporting the bankable feasibility study.

• Question from David Lasinski (Accurate): Are royalty companies showing interest in financing the project?
  Response: Yes—royalty/stream financing would be available if pursued; management is confident such options are attainable.

• Question from David Lasinski (Accurate): Have you considered small modular reactors instead of natural gas for power?
  Response: SMRs are still years away; natural gas remains the preferred solution, with a potential Alaska pipeline offering future benefit.