Nova (NVMI) Surges 6.7% on Intraday Rally – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Nova (NVMI) rockets 6.73% to $350.49, piercing intraday high of $350.58
• 30-day support/resistance range (335.42–336.64) decisively breached
• MACD (4.80) and RSI (47.0) signal accelerating bullish momentum
• Options chain sees 2026-01-16 340C contract trade 91.9% of turnover
Nova’s explosive intraday move has ignited market attention, with the stock surging beyond its 30-day resistance and approaching the 52-week high of $361.32. While no company-specific news triggered the rally, technical indicators and options activity suggest a strategic breakout. Traders are now weighing whether this momentum will sustain or reverse as the stock tests critical psychological levels.

Technical Bullishness Drives NVMI Higher Amid Key Resistance Breakouts
Nova’s 6.73% intraday surge stems from a clean break above its 30-day support/resistance range (335.42–336.64), with price now trading 23.76% above the 200-day MA (264.10). The MACD histogram (0.78) and positive signal line (4.02) confirm strengthening bullish momentum, while the RSI (47.0) suggests the move remains within a healthy accumulation phase. Bollinger Bands show the stock is 7.3% above the middle band (326.73), indicating a short-term overextension. This technical alignment—combined with the 340C options contract’s 91.9% turnover—points to institutional positioning for a continuation of the rally.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls for Aggressive Bulls
• 200-day MA: 264.11 (well below current price)
• RSI: 46.97 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: 4.80 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 345.95 (upper), 326.73 (middle), 307.51 (lower)
• 30D/100D/200D MA: 316.88 / 305.87 / 264.10 (all below price)
• Support/Resistance: 335.42–336.64 (broken), 192.36–196.15 (distant)

Key levels to watch: $345.95 (Bollinger upper), $361.32 (52W high), and $335.42 (recent support). The 340C and 360C options on 2026-01-16 offer compelling leverage.

NVMI20260116C340
• Code: NVMI20260116C340
• Type: Call
• Strike: $340
• Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 35.94% (moderate)
• Leverage: 20.57% (high)
• Delta: 0.6946 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.9314 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0137 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 87,700 (liquid)
• Price change ratio: 91.91% (active)
Why it stands out: High leverage and moderate delta position this call to capitalize on a 5% upside (target $367.97). Payoff: max(0, 367.97 - 340) = $27.97 per share.

NVMI20260116C360
• Code: NVMI20260116C360
• Type: Call
• Strike: $360
• Expiry: 2026-01-16
• IV: 35.66% (moderate)
• Leverage: 52.36% (very high)
• Delta: 0.3904 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.6884 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.0151 (strong sensitivity)
• Turnover: 68,760 (liquid)
• Price change ratio: 56.05% (active)
Why it stands out: Extreme leverage (52.36%) amplifies returns if the stock holds above $340. Payoff: max(0, 367.97 - 360) = $7.97 per share.

Aggressive bulls should consider NVMI20260116C340 into a bounce above $345.95.

Backtest Nova Stock Performance
The backtest of NVMI's performance following a 7% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 54.42%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.43%, and the 30-Day win rate is 60.04%, suggesting that the ETF tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 8.06% over 30 days, indicating that there is potential for significant gains but with some volatility.

Act Now: NVMI’s Breakout Demands Strategic Positioning
Nova’s 6.73% surge reflects a technical breakout with strong momentum indicators and active options positioning. The 340C and 360C contracts offer high-leverage entry points for traders betting on a continuation of the rally. While the Healthcare Equipment sector leader Medtronic (MDT) lags with a 0.21% gain, NVMI’s move appears self-driven. Investors should monitor the $345.95 Bollinger upper band and 52-week high ($361.32) for confirmation of a sustained trend. Watch for $345.95 retest and 340C/360C options liquidity.