Nova Minerals' Strategic Drilling at Stibium: A Geopolitical Play for Critical Mineral Security

In a world increasingly defined by resource nationalism and supply chain fragility, Nova Minerals Limited (ASX: NOV) has positioned itself at the intersection of critical mineral security and geopolitical opportunity. The company's Stibium project in Alaska—a high-grade gold-antimony target—has emerged as a pivotal asset in the U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD) race to secure domestic supplies of antimony, a mineral indispensable to military technology, energy storage, and industrial applications. With China's recent export ban on antimony to the U.S. creating a global shortage and driving prices to five-year highs, Nova's drilling program at Stibium represents not just a technical milestone but a strategic imperative for national security.

The Stibium Project: A High-Grade Opportunity in a Strategic Jurisdiction

Nova's drilling at Stibium, part of its broader Estelle Gold-Antimony Project, is designed to unlock a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for both gold and antimony by year-end 2025. Surface sampling has already revealed a mineralized footprint spanning 800 meters by 400 meters, with rock samples grading up to 60.5% antimony and 141 g/t gold, and soil samples showing 2.8% antimony and 25.6 g/t gold. These results, coupled with the project's proximity to Nova's existing Whiskey Bravo camp and the bulk-tonnage Korbel gold deposit, suggest a potentially large, high-grade system that remains untested at depth.

The company's 3,000-meter diamond drilling program, now underway, is complemented by a flexible strategy to scale operations. A second diamond rig and a reverse circulation (RC) rig have been mobilized, with plans to add more rigs if the U.S. DoD approves funding under the Defense Production Act Title III. This funding, if secured, would accelerate development of a state-of-the-art antimony metallurgical processing hub in Port Mackenzie, Alaska—a critical step in transforming Stibium from a resource into a production asset.

Geopolitical Tailwinds: Antimony as a Strategic Commodity

Antimony's role in the global economy has never been more critical. The U.S. currently imports over 90% of its antimony, with China controlling approximately 60% of global production and nearly all refining capacity. Since August 2024, China has imposed an export ban on antimony to the U.S., reducing shipments by 99.9% in Q1 2025 and triggering a surge in prices. This move has exposed the fragility of U.S. supply chains and intensified the DoD's focus on domestic sources.

Nova's Stibium project is uniquely positioned to address this gap. Located in the Tintina Gold Belt—a region historically known for large gold and antimony deposits—Stibium operates in a mining-friendly jurisdiction with existing infrastructure and political support. The U.S. government has recognized antimony as a critical mineral under Section 232 tariffs and the 2025 Executive Order on Increasing American Mineral Production, both of which prioritize reducing reliance on adversarial suppliers. Nova's alignment with these policies, including its collaboration with United States Antimony Corporation (USAC), the operator of North America's only two antimony smelters, further strengthens its strategic value.

Strategic Partnerships and Infrastructure: A Path to Production

Nova's efforts extend beyond exploration. The company has submitted a long-term land lease application for the Port Mackenzie processing hub and is engaging with a world-leading antimony refining expert. These moves underscore its intent to vertically integrate the value chain, from mining to refining, and secure offtake agreements with defense and industrial partners. The DoD's interest in funding such infrastructure is not merely altruistic; it reflects a broader U.S. strategy to reestablish Alaska as a critical mineral supplier, a role the state played historically during the Cold War.

The geopolitical calculus is clear: with China's export restrictions and the U.S. military's urgent need for antimony in advanced weaponry and fireproofing compounds, Nova's Stibium project is no longer a speculative play but a strategic necessity. As RFC Ambrian, an independent minerals advisor, notes, Stibium is one of only nine globally viable near-term antimony projects, with three in the U.S. This scarcity of alternatives amplifies the project's significance.

Investment Thesis: A Dual-Resource Play in a Supply-Chain-Centric Era

From an investment perspective, Nova offers a compelling dual-resource model. While the company's gold assets at RPM and Korbel provide near-term value and operational stability, Stibium's antimony potential taps into a market with acute supply constraints and geopolitical tailwinds. The combination of high-grade surface results, a flexible drilling strategy, and DoD-backed infrastructure funding creates a low-risk, high-reward scenario.

For investors, the key catalysts include:
1. MRE confirmation by late 2025, which would validate the scale of the resource and unlock financing.
2. DoD funding approval, which could fast-track processing infrastructure and offtake agreements.
3. Antimony price sustainability, driven by continued export restrictions and U.S. stockpiling efforts.

Conclusion: A Strategic Bet on Critical Mineral Security

In an era where supply chains are as much about geopolitics as economics, Nova Minerals' Stibium project embodies the future of resource investing. By addressing a critical national security need while leveraging Alaska's mining heritage, the company is poised to benefit from both technical success and policy-driven demand. For investors seeking exposure to the critical mineral revolution, Nova's dual-resource strategy and strategic alignment with U.S. priorities make it a standout opportunity in a rapidly evolving market.

Investment Advice: Given the project's geopolitical significance, high-grade results, and alignment with U.S. supply chain goals, Nova Minerals is a high-conviction long-term holding. Investors should monitor the Q4 2025 MRE release and DoD funding updates as key inflection points.