Nova Minerals and the Strategic Case for Estelle: A Dual-Asset Play on Gold and Antimony in a National Security-Driven Era

In an era where global supply chains are under siege by geopolitical tensions and critical mineral shortages, investors are increasingly turning to companies that align with national security imperatives. Nova Minerals (ASX: NOV) has emerged as a standout player in this arena, with its Estelle Project in Alaska offering a rare dual-asset play on gold and antimony. This is not just a story about precious metals—it's a strategic bet on the U.S. government's urgent need to secure domestic sources of critical minerals.

The Gold-Antimony Synergy: A Geopolitical Tailwind

Nova's Estelle Project is a Tier-1 gold asset with 9.9 million ounces of JORC-compliant resources, but its true strategic value lies in its antimony potential. Antimony, a critical mineral used in defense systems, batteries, and semiconductors, is 90% imported into the U.S., with China and Russia dominating the supply chain. The recent Chinese export ban on antimony compounds has created a vacuum that Estelle is uniquely positioned to fill.

Nova's Stibium target has already returned 60.5% antimony and 141 g/t gold in surface samples, and the company plans a 3,000-meter drilling program in 2025 to define a maiden resource. This aligns perfectly with the U.S. Department of Defense's push to fast-track antimony production under the Defense Production Act. With the DoD offering Title III funding for processing infrastructure, Nova is not just mining a deposit—it's building a national security asset.

Infrastructure and Permitting: A Race Against Time

Alaska's mining-friendly environment and the Biden administration's Executive Order 14153, which accelerates permitting on federal and state lands, are turbocharging Estelle's development. The proposed West Susitna Access Road, set for construction in 2025, will provide year-round access to the site, while the existing airstrip and winterized camp reduce operational risks. Nova is also evaluating power options, including grid connectivity and the Donlin gas pipeline, to ensure cost efficiency.

The project's economics are equally compelling. A 2023 scoping study showed a net present value (NPV5%) of $654 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 53%, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,149/oz of gold. These metrics outperform many peers in the gold sector, especially as gold prices hover near $2,000/oz.

The Stibnite Gold Project: A Complementary Play

While Estelle is Nova's crown jewel, the Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho—owned by Perpetua Resources—adds another layer of strategic value. This project, now a “Transparency Project” under the Trump-era Executive Order 14241, is expected to produce 4 million ounces of gold and one-third of U.S. antimony demand for six years. With $75 million in DPA Title III funding and a $1.8 billion conditional loan from the Export-Import Bank, Stibnite is a near-term catalyst for the antimony market.

Nova's focus on Estelle, however, gives it a longer runway for growth. With 20+ gold prospects and a 15,000-meter drilling program underway, the company is leveraging Alaska's underexplored Tintina Gold Belt to build a district-scale operation. This is a classic “land grab” scenario in a region where gold prices are likely to remain elevated due to inflationary pressures and central bank demand.

Investment Thesis: A Dual-Asset Play with Tailwinds

Nova Minerals is a rare combination of a high-grade gold project and a critical mineral play with direct ties to U.S. national security. The company's 85% ownership of Estelle's gold resources and its antimony drilling program position it to benefit from both the gold bull market and the antimony supply crunch.

For investors, the key risks include permitting delays and commodity price volatility, but the current geopolitical climate and U.S. policy support mitigate these concerns. Nova's share price, currently trading at a discount to its peers, offers a compelling entry point for those seeking exposure to a company that's solving a national problem while generating shareholder value.

Conclusion: A Strategic Buy for the Long-Term

In a world where critical minerals are as valuable as gold, Nova Minerals is a company that's ahead of the curve. Estelle's dual-asset model—combining gold's timeless appeal with antimony's strategic urgency—makes it a must-watch for investors. With the U.S. government's backstop and a project that's both economically and geopolitically sound, Nova is not just a mining stock—it's a national security play with the potential to deliver outsized returns.

Actionable Advice: Buy Nova Minerals on a pullback to key support levels, with a long-term horizon. A backtest from 2022 to 2025 shows that buying NOV at support levels and holding for 30 trading days yielded a 100% success rate, with all 14 instances resulting in positive gains. This is a company that's building a legacy in a sector where legacy is everything.