NOV Plunges 8.79%: What's Fueling the Sudden Drop in Oilfield Equipment Giant?

Summary
• NOV's stock opened at $13.145 on July 29, 2025, but slid to an intraday low of $12.66 before stabilizing at $12.915.
• The company reported 2Q 2025 earnings of $0.34, beating estimates by $0.04, but revenue fell short of long-term growth expectations.
• Schlumberger (SLB) and Baker Hughes (BKR) also posted mixed results, with SLB down -1.43% and BKR consolidating after its $13.6B Chart Industries acquisition.
• NOV's 52-week range (10.84–18.4) and 13.4x dynamic P/E suggest value, but near-term guidance has rattled investor confidence.
NOV’s sharp selloff reflects a collision of macroeconomic caution and sector-specific pressures. Despite a 19.19% 3-month gain, the stock faces headwinds from OPEC+ quotas and offshore activity delays. Traders are now dissecting the 52W Low of $10.84 and 200D MA at $14.24 as critical inflection points.

2Q Results and Guidance Spur Sharp Decline
NOV’s 8.79% plunge stems from a combination of bearish guidance and macroeconomic uncertainty. While the company beat EPS estimates by $0.04, it cut its Q3 revenue outlook to a 1–3% YoY decline, citing deferred orders and OPEC+ production constraints. The 2.19B revenue figure, down 1% YoY, highlighted structural challenges in energy equipment demand. Management’s admission of "macroeconomic uncertainty" and "geopolitical conflicts" further eroded confidence, triggering profit-taking and volatility. The 12.915 price point now sits 34.4% below its 52W High of $18.4, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.

Oilfield Services Sector Trails S&P 500 Amid Cyclical Uncertainty
The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector closed the day with a 0.55% gain, lagging behind the S&P 500’s 0.20% return. Schlumberger (-1.43%) and Halliburton (-1.69%) underperformed NOV (-6.85%), despite Baker Hughes’ recent $13.6B Chart Industries acquisition. NOV’s 2.67% market cap weight in the sector highlights its sensitivity to cyclical demand. While Schlumberger’s 26.09% weight and $50.2B cap anchor the sector, NOV’s 5.13B market cap and 388,229 employee footprint reflect its exposure to volatile offshore projects. Sector analysts note that NOV’s 13.25% 1-year return trails the sector’s 13.25% and S&P’s 16.81%, underscoring its risk profile.

Options Playbook: NOV20250815P12 and NOV20250815P13 for Bearish Exposure
• MACD: 0.200855 (Signal Line: 0.101121, Histogram: 0.099735) – Bullish divergence
• RSI: 59.587 – Neutral
• Bollinger Bands: Upper (14.1966), Middle (13.2325), Lower (12.2684) – Price near Lower Band
• 200D MA: 14.2436 (above current price)
• Support/Resistance: 12.7068–12.7414 (Support), 15.4268–15.5404 (Resistance)
NOV’s technicals paint a mixed picture: short-term bearish momentum (MACD Histogram >0) clashes with long-term bearish bias (200D MA above price). The 12.915 price sits near key support at 12.74, with RSI neutral and Bollinger Bands suggesting a potential bounce. For aggressive bearish plays, the NOV20250815P12 and NOV20250815P13 options offer high leverage (85.97% and 23.45%) and liquidity (1,669 and 4,260 turnover).
• NOV20250815P12 (Put, $12 strike, 2025-08-15): IV 42.59%, Delta -0.208, Theta -0.0081, Gamma 0.2348, Turnover 1,669
• NOV20250815P13 (Put, $13 strike, 2025-08-15): IV 43.58%, Delta -0.512, Theta -0.0094, Gamma 0.3190, Turnover 4,260
Under a 5% downside scenario (ST = 12.27), NOV20250815P12 payoff = max(0, 12.27 -12) = $0.27, while NOV20250815P13 payoff = max(0, 13 -12.27) = $0.73. The latter’s -0.512 delta and 0.319 gamma amplify gains in a sharp decline. These contracts offer high liquidity and moderate IV, making them ideal for short-term bearish bets. Aggressive bulls should watch the 13.2325 Bollinger Middle Band for a potential rebound.

Backtest NOV Stock Performance
The backtest of NOV's performance after a -9% intraday plunge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 35.87%, the 10-day win rate is 38.04%, and the 30-day win rate is 61.96%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short to medium term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.24%, suggesting that even though there was a high win rate, the returns were relatively modest.

NOV at Crossroads: Watch 12.74 Support and Schlumberger’s -1.43% Move
NOV’s 8.79% drop has exposed its vulnerability to offshore demand cycles and geopolitical headwinds. While the 52W Low of $10.84 looms as a critical threshold, the 12.74 support level and 13.2325 Bollinger Middle Band will determine short-term direction. Schlumberger’s -1.43% decline highlights sector-wide fragility. Investors should monitor the 12.74 support and 15.43 200D MA for a potential reversal. For now, the NOV20250815P13 put option offers the highest leverage-to-risk ratio. If $12.74 breaks, NOV20250815P13 could amplify bearish exposure. Aggressive bulls may consider a 13.2325 retest before committing to longs.