Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-10-14

• Price surged from $0.000896 to $0.000949 before consolidating near $0.000936–$0.000945.
• Strong bullish momentum in the morning followed by bearish correction in the afternoon.
• Volatility expanded through midday before contracting in late trading hours.
• RSI overbought conditions emerged near 70 before reversing downward in late hours.
• Total volume exceeded 1.6B contracts, with turnover surpassing $1.5M USD.

The Notcoin/Tether (NOTUSDT) pair opened at $0.000896 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $0.000949 before settling at $0.000936 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 1,647,737,645 contracts, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $1.53M USD. Price action featured sharp intraday swings, especially between 18:00–20:30 ET, as NOTUSDT traded above a rising 20-period moving average.

Structure & Formations

Price developed a key resistance zone around $0.000949–$0.000952, failing to maintain a close above this range after a midday push. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged after 20:15 ET, which reversed the rally. The pair also tested a prior support at $0.000935–$0.000936, finding temporary bids before retreating. A potential double-top formation is forming, with neckline support near $0.000935.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, NOTUSDT closed below its 50-period moving average, which is declining slightly. The 20-period line is flattening near $0.000941, indicating reduced momentum. Bollinger Bands widened during the morning rally and have since contracted, signaling a potential consolidation phase. Price currently rests within the lower half of the bands, suggesting bearish pressure.

Momentum & RSI

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought territory above 70 during the morning surge but fell back toward neutral levels after 18:00 ET. The 12-period MACD line crossed below the signal line in late afternoon, confirming bearish momentum. However, RSI remains above 50, suggesting that sellers may not yet have overwhelmed buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volumes spiked significantly between 18:00 and 20:30 ET, coinciding with the sharp rally and subsequent correction. Turnover confirmed the price action, with notable liquidity at key levels such as $0.000949 and $0.000952. A divergence appears in the latter part of the session, as volume declined despite price consolidating near key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute rally from $0.000939 to $0.000973, price has retraced to the 61.8% level near $0.000953. The daily move from $0.000893 to $0.000973 has seen a 38.2% retracement at $0.000935, where the pair has found temporary support. A break below this level may see further correction toward the 61.8% retracement near $0.000914.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-selling strategy could target bearish engulfing patterns on the 1-hour chart. For a meaningful backtest, it is necessary to specify a candle interval and an exit rule. Assuming a 1-hour candle interval and a fixed holding period of 5 candles (5 hours) with a stop-loss at –3% and a take-profit at +2%, the strategy could be evaluated from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14. This approach would help determine the viability of using bearish engulfing patterns as entry signals in this market.