Norway committee keeps 2026 underlying CPI estimate at 3.1%

Norway’s wage commission has maintained its 2026 core inflation projection at 3.1%, aligning with long-term expectations for price stability despite recent short-term fluctuations. This estimate reflects structural economic trends and labor market dynamics, as outlined by the commission in its February 13, 2026, report.

Meanwhile, February 2026 data revealed a near-term slowdown in underlying inflation, with core consumer-price growth easing to 3.0%, the lowest level in three months, according to Statistics Norway. This figure, slightly above the central bank’s December projection of 2.6%, suggests moderating price pressures but remains above the 2.8% median forecast of economists. The headline inflation rate also declined to a ten-month low of 2.7%, underscoring a broader cooling trend.

The inflation slowdown has reduced immediate pressure on Norges Bank to adjust its monetary policy trajectory. The central bank, which plans to cut borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points this year from 4%, may reassess its rate path when updating projections on March 26. Analysts note that while an acute risk of a March rate hike has diminished, policymakers could delay further easing or even reconsider hikes later in 2026 if inflationary risks resurface.

Market reactions were mixed, with the Norwegian krone weakening 0.3% against the euro following the data release, as traders adjusted expectations for potential rate hikes. The inflation outlook remains distinct from Nordic peers, with Norway’s rates persistently higher than Denmark's 0.7% annual inflation reported in February.

The divergence between long-term projections and near-term trends highlights ongoing challenges in balancing monetary policy with evolving economic conditions.