Norway’s Big Play with Trump: A Gas and Guns Deal?

Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre is set to meet with President Trump this week, and the stakes are huge for investors. With trade tariffs, defense deals, and energy projects on the table, this isn’t just a diplomatic photo-op—it’s a potential game-changer for sectors from oil to defense. Let’s break down what’s at play and where the money is.

The Trade Tariff Tug-of-War
The U.S. hit Norway with a 15% tariff on imports earlier this year—a move Støre called “bad news.” But here’s the twist: the rate was later cut to 10% for 90 days, giving Norway a window to negotiate. This isn’t just about Norwegian salmon and lumber; energy is the real prize. Norway is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, and the U.S. is pushing allies to buy more of its shale gas to shrink trade deficits.

Why it matters for investors: If Norway agrees to boost U.S. LNG imports, companies like Equinor (EQNR)—Norway’s oil giant—could benefit from new partnerships. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exporters like Cheniere Energy (LNG) might see demand rise. But the tariff clock is ticking: if talks fail, that 10% could jump back to 15%, hurting Norway’s $130 billion economy (8% of exports go to the U.S.).

Defense Deal: A Cold War 2.0 Play?
On the security front, Norway just signed a Supplementary Defense Cooperation Agreement (SDCA) with the U.S., letting American troops use four key bases. This isn’t just about NATO—it’s about countering Russia’s Arctic ambitions. Norway’s defense budget is set to double by 2036, hitting 3% of GDP.

For investors, this is a gold mine for defense stocks. U.S. firms like Lockheed Martin (LMT) (makers of F-35 jets) and Raytheon (RTX) (missile systems) could win contracts to upgrade Norway’s military. Meanwhile, Norway’s own defense firms, like Kongsberg Defence, might see orders spike for anti-submarine systems.

The Alaska LNG Project: A $40 Billion Gamble
The U.S. is pushing Norway to invest in its Alaska LNG project, a $40+ billion pipeline. Why? Because Trump’s “energy dominance” plan needs allies to buy U.S. gas. Norway’s Statoil (now Equinor) already has LNG experience, and this could be a win-win: Norway gets cheaper gas, and the U.S. boosts exports.

Risk Alert: If the project sputters, it could leave both countries holding the bag. But if it succeeds, companies like Halliburton (HAL) (infrastructure) and Caterpillar (CAT) (heavy equipment) might see contracts flow.

The Bottom Line: Buy Energy, Bet on Defense
This meeting isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about reshaping energy and military alliances. Here’s what to do:

1. Go Long on LNG: Buy shares in Equinor (EQNR) and Cheniere (LNG) if the U.S.-Norway energy deal solidifies.
2. Load Up on Defense: Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTX) are plays on Norway’s defense spending boom.
3. Avoid the Tariff Trap: If talks fail, sectors like shipping and timber (which face tariffs) could slump.

Norway’s economy is export-dependent, and this meeting could decide whether those exports keep flowing—or get stuck in a trade war. With 12% of Norway’s GDP tied to energy exports, a deal here isn’t just a win for stocks—it’s a win for global markets.

Final Word: This isn’t just about Norway and the U.S.—it’s about who controls the next decade’s energy and security. Investors who bet on gas and guns now could be laughing all the way to the bank.

Cramer’s Take: Buy EQNR and LMT. If tariffs stay low, this could be the start of a beautiful partnership—and a huge profit for the bold.