Northern Trust Stock Surges 3.65% as Technical Indicators Signal Strong Bullish Momentum

Northern Trust (NTRS) closed at $128.76 in the most recent session, registering a significant gain of 3.65%. This sharp upward move forms the basis for the following multi-indicator technical analysis of the stock's price action over the past year.
Candlestick Theory
The recent price surge manifests as a strong bullish candle, decisively breaking above the consolidation resistance near $125 seen over the preceding week. This breakout candle exhibits a relatively small upper wick ($128.76 close vs. $129.155 high), suggesting strong buying interest into the close. Key resistance is now established at the July 7th swing high of $132.37, while notable support lies around $118.00-$120.00, stemming from the late-June consolidation base preceding the significant June 23rd breakout candle. The long lower shadow on July 23rd (low $118.99, close $124.23) indicates robust rejection of lower prices near $119.
Moving Average Theory
The price is currently positioned firmly above all key moving averages – the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – signaling a strong intermediate to long-term uptrend. Notably, the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA (a 'Golden Cross') in mid-July, adding confirmation to the bullish bias. The price action consistently finding support near the rising 50-day MA (currently around $121) throughout June and July underscores its importance. Maintaining above $125, which aligns with the recent consolidation high and psychologically important level, is crucial for sustaining the positive short-term momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line (12,26,9) remains above its signal line and the zero line, confirming positive momentum. However, the histogram shows narrowing positive bars on the most recent surge, hinting at a potential reduction in upside momentum relative to the prior sharp move. Concurrently, the KDJ (9,3,3) oscillators present a more cautionary signal: while currently in bullish territory, both the %K and %D lines are hovering near the overbought zone (above 80). Although this confirms strong near-term momentum, it also raises the possibility of consolidation or a pullback as these indicators often correct from such elevated readings. No significant bearish divergence is currently evident on either oscillator.
Bollinger Bands
Northern Trust's price is currently trading near the upper Bollinger Band ($130.80, using 20-day, 2 std), reflecting strength. The bands had contracted noticeably in the days leading up to the July 24th surge, indicating a period of lower volatility that often precedes a significant breakout. The sharp move has triggered a band expansion. While proximity to the upper band signifies strength, it can also imply the move is potentially overextended in the near term. Traders will monitor if the price can sustain above the middle band ($124.40) on any pullback; holding above it would suggest the primary uptrend remains intact.
Volume-Price Relationship
The June 23rd surge of 8.01% was accompanied by exceptionally heavy volume, confirming the power of that breakout and establishing $120.81 as a significant support level. The recent price jump occurred on above-average volume (2.29M shares versus recent averages near 1.8-2.0M), providing constructive validation for the breakout above $125. However, it's worth noting that volume during the July 24th rally did not match the extremes of the June 23rd volume spike. The lack of significant volume on subsequent down days (e.g., July 21st, July 14th) signals an absence of intense selling pressure during minor pullbacks within the uptrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculated using the standard 14-period formula, the RSI currently sits near 68, approaching overbought territory (>70) but not yet breaching it. Prior instances where the RSI exceeded 70 (late February/early March, late March/early April, mid-June) were followed by periods of consolidation or pullback. The current reading suggests strong bullish momentum but cautions against immediate aggressive entry as the RSI approaches its overbought threshold. Crucially, there is no bearish divergence currently evident between price highs and the RSI.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the significant trend from the swing low of ~$80.80 (approximately August 2024) to the recent peak of $133.00 (July 2024) yields key levels: 23.6% at $111.57, 38.2% at $106.50, 50.0% at $101.42, and 61.8% at $96.34. The recent consolidation and subsequent surge occurred primarily above the 23.6% retracement level ($111.57). This area now acts as a major support zone, reinforced by its confluence with the July 23rd swing low (~$119) and the psychological $120 level. Upside targets derived from Fibonacci extensions would focus on 127.2% ($140+) and 161.8% ($158+) of the prior significant swing, though the immediate resistance remains the July high near $133.
Confluence & Divergence Notes
Significant confluence exists around the $125 level, acting as a key pivot confirmed by prior resistance, volume analysis, the rising 50-day MA proximity, and its psychological significance – holding above this level appears vital for the continuation of the current breakout. Resistance near $129-$130 is also notable based on recent highs and proximity to the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD histogram narrowing alongside a high RSI reading (~68) and overbought KDJ readings suggest a potential near-term consolidation or modest pullback may be likely to relieve overbought conditions. However, the lack of bearish divergences across key oscillators and the strength of the price breakout supported by volume suggest any pullback might find buyers, particularly near former resistance-turned-support in the $120-$122 zone. Overall, the weight of evidence leans bullish, albeit with a near-term warning flag for consolidation due to overbought oscillators and recent rapid ascent.