Northern Oil and Gas Soars 5.62% After Beating EPS Estimates, Raising Production Guidance

The share price rose to its highest level since this month, with an intraday gain of 5.62% on Nov. 8.

Recent performance of Northern Oil and Gas(NOG) reflects strong investor confidence following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report. The company exceeded adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 25.61%, reporting $1.03 against a consensus of $0.82. Despite a GAAP net loss of $129.1 million due to a $318.7 million non-cash impairment charge, adjusted EBITDA reached $387.1 million, and free cash flow totaled $118.9 million. Management attributed the impairment to asset write-downs, emphasizing it had no impact on operating cash flow. Production guidance for 2025 was raised to 132,500–134,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by 8% higher output in the Appalachian region.

Analysts highlight NOG’s disciplined capital allocation as a key strength, with Q3 2025 capital expenditures of $272 million and updated 2025 CapEx guidance narrowed to $950–$1.025 billion. The stock’s valuation has improved, trading at 6 times forward earnings, down from 7 times three months earlier. A “Buy” consensus from analysts, supported by six “Strong Buy” ratings, underscores optimism about the company’s operational efficiency and strategic expansion. Recent acquisitions added 2,500 net acres and 5.8 net wells, bolstering its asset base. However, the stock remains underperforming the S&P 500, down 44.9% year-to-date, with a median 12-month price target of $30.00 (31.7% above its Nov. 5 close) suggesting potential upside if earnings momentum continues.

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