Northern Dynasty Minerals Shares Surge Nearly 38% After Trump Order

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NDM, NYSE: NAK) saw its shares surge nearly 38% on Monday, March 24, 2025, following President Donald Trump's executive order aimed at boosting America's mineral production. The order, titled "Immediate Measures to Increase America’s Mineral Production," leverages the Defense Production Act to provide financing, loans, and other investment support for domestic processing of critical minerals and rare earth elements. This move is expected to expedite approvals for domestic mineral production projects, including Northern Dynasty's flagship Pebble Project in Alaska.

The Pebble Project, located in Southwest Alaska, is considered the world's largest undeveloped copper deposit. It also contains significant resources of gold, molybdenum, silver, and rhenium, a mineral critical for military applications. The project has faced strong opposition for nearly two decades due to its potential environmental impact, particularly in the Bristol Bay region, home to the world's largest sockeye salmon fisheries. However, the executive order could fast-track the project, leading to a surge in investor confidence and stock prices.

The executive order highlights the past prominence of the U.S. mining industry and the importance of securing a stable and predictable supply of essential minerals for defense, technology, and infrastructure. According to Ron Thiessen, Northern Dynasty President and CEO, the 2020 Final Environmental Impact Study indicated that the Pebble Project could result in significant economic benefits, both in terms of high-paying jobs and tax revenues, for local Alaskan communities, the state, and the U.S.

Over an estimated 20-year mine life, the Pebble Project is expected to produce 6.4 billion pounds of copper, 7.4 million ounces of gold, 300 million pounds of molybdenum, 37 million ounces of silver, and 200,000 kilograms of rhenium. These resources are critical for various industries, including defense, technology, and infrastructure. The project's development is expected to create high-paying jobs and generate significant tax revenues, contributing to the economic growth of the region and the nation as a whole.

The surge in Northern Dynasty Minerals' shares can be attributed to several key factors. First, the executive order directed federal agencies to expedite approvals for domestic mineral production projects, which could fast-track the Pebble Project. Second, the order underscores the strategic importance of securing a stable and predictable supply of essential minerals like copper and gold for defense, technology, and infrastructure. Third, the Pebble Project contains significant resources of these minerals, making it strategically important.

Historically, Northern Dynasty Minerals' stock has been volatile, with significant price movements in response to geopolitical events and regulatory decisions. For instance, on October 25, 2021, the stock "popped" due to the completion of an economic assessment for its Alaskan mine project, indicating potential impressive returns. Similarly, on February 26, 2021, the stock "soared" following good news regarding an appeal of a decision against its mining plans. The current surge can be seen as a continuation of this pattern, where positive regulatory developments lead to significant stock price increases.



Investors expect that the executive order could fast-track the Pebble project, leading to a 32% increase in Northern Dynasty’s shares to C$1.73, pushing the company’s market capitalization to C$908 million ($634 million). This expectation is based on the potential economic benefits and the strategic importance of the minerals involved.

However, it is important to note that the Pebble Project has faced strong opposition for nearly two decades due to its potential environmental impact. In January 2023, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency blocked the project by prohibiting Northern Dynasty’s U.S. subsidiary from storing mine waste in the Bristol Bay watershed. The company has since filed a complaint, arguing that the EPA’s decision violates federal statutes, including Alaska’s statehood rights and a land exchange approved by Congress.

In conclusion, the surge in Northern Dynasty Minerals' shares following President Trump's executive order is a testament to the strategic importance of the Pebble Project and the potential economic benefits it could bring to local communities, the state, and the U.S. However, the project still faces significant regulatory and environmental challenges that could impact its development and the company's stock price in the future.