Nomura Holdings Skyrockets 5.16%: Can This Bull Run Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• Nomura’s Q1 net profit surged 52% YoY to ¥104.6bn
• Wealth Management drove 13th straight quarter of net inflows
• Global Markets division revenue rose 7% amid Trump tariff volatility
• Record ¥94.3tn AuM in Investment Management fuels growth

Nomura Holdings (NMR) is surging 5.16% intraday to ¥7.025, fueled by robust Q1 results and strategic expansion. The stock has climbed from a 13-month low of ¥6.945 to a 52-week high of ¥7.2, with 993k shares traded. Strong earnings across all four business segments, including a 98% YoY jump in Wholesale pretax income, have ignited investor enthusiasm. With the acquisition of a U.S.-European asset management firm on the horizon, the question remains: can this momentum continue?

Q1 Earnings Surge and Strategic Expansion Ignite Rally
Nomura’s 5.16% intraday surge stems from a blockbuster Q1 earnings report, with net income rising 52% YoY to ¥104.6bn and EPS hitting ¥34.04. The Wealth Management division delivered 13 consecutive quarters of net inflows, while Investment Management’s AuM hit a record ¥94.3tn. Wholesale revenue grew 7% YoY, driven by volatile markets linked to Trump’s tariff proposals and strong domestic M&A activity. The planned acquisition of a U.S.-European public asset management firm further underscores strategic momentum, positioning Nomura to diversify its global footprint.

Capital Markets Sector Gains Momentum as Goldman Sachs Leads
Goldman Sachs (GS), the sector leader, is up 1.397% intraday, reflecting broader capital markets optimism. While Nomura’s rally is driven by earnings and strategic moves, GS’s performance highlights sector-wide strength in M&A and trading. However, Nomura’s 5.16% surge outpaces GS, indicating unique catalysts from its Q1 results and acquisition plans. The Capital Markets sector remains resilient amid global volatility, with investors rotating into firms demonstrating operational diversification and growth.

Bullish Playbook: NMR20250815C7.5 and NMR20260116C7.5 for Leverage
• MACD: 0.122 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.094, Histogram: 0.028 (positive momentum)
• RSI: 65.2 (neutral but trending up)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at ¥7.025 (above middle band, bullish)
• 200D MA: 6.021 (price 16.7% above, strong support)

Nomura’s technicals align with a continuation pattern. Key resistance lies at ¥7.2 (52W high), with support at ¥6.83 (Bollinger Upper Band). The 65.2 RSI and positive MACD suggest upward momentum, while the 16.7% premium to 200D MA signals sustained strength. No leveraged ETF data is available, but the options chain offers high-leverage calls for aggressive positioning.

Top Option 1: NMR20250815C7.5
• Code: NMR20250815C7.5
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• Delta: 0.2319 (moderate sensitivity)
• IV: 39.65% (mid-range)
• Theta: -0.003881 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.4936 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 732 (liquid)
• Leverage: 87.62% (aggressive payoff)

Top Option 2: NMR20260116C7.5
• Code: NMR20260116C7.5
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• Delta: 0.3991 (balanced sensitivity)
• IV: 31.81% (reasonable)
• Theta: -0.001377 (low decay)
• Gamma: 0.2472 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 13,687 (high liquidity)
• Leverage: 17.97% (moderate payoff)

Payoff Analysis: At a 5% upside (¥7.376), NMR20250815C7.5 would yield max(0, 7.376-7.5)=¥0.00, but with 87.62% leverage, this contract offers explosive potential if the 52W high is tested. NMR20260116C7.5, with lower IV and slower decay, provides a safer long-term play on the 7.5 strike. Aggressive bulls should target NMR20250815C7.5 into a breakout above ¥7.2; conservative investors may prefer NMR20260116C7.5 for a slower, compounding play.

Backtest Nomura Holdings Stock Performance
The strategy of buying NMR after an intraday surge of 5% has shown favorable performance in the backtest. The 3-day win rate is 54.23%, the 10-day win rate is 53.73%, and the 30-day win rate is 52.57%. While the returns are modest, with a maximum return of 2.24% over 30 days, the strategy consistently shows a positive trend, making it a reasonable approach for capturing short-term gains.

Position for Sustained Momentum: Nomura’s Global Expansion Story
Nomura’s 5.16% intraday surge is underpinned by a rare combination of earnings acceleration, record AuM, and strategic global expansion. The 65.2 RSI and positive MACD suggest momentum is intact, with the 52W high at ¥7.2 as the next critical target. The acquisition of a U.S.-European asset management firm adds a catalyst for 2026. Investors should monitor the 7.2 level—breakout confirms bullish continuation, while a close below ¥6.83 (Bollinger Upper Band) triggers caution. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs (GS) rising 1.397% signals sector-wide strength. For those seeking leverage, NMR20250815C7.5 offers explosive potential if the 7.2 level is cleared.