Nomura Holdings Jumps 4.64% as Technicals Signal Bullish Continuation

Nomura Holdings (NMR) advanced 4.64% in the latest session, closing at 6.99 after testing resistance near the multi-month high of 7.20, signaling potential bullish continuation following a recent consolidation phase.
Candlestick Theory
The July 29 bullish marubozu candle (6.92–7.20 range, close near high) confirms rejection of the 6.65–6.75 support zone established over the prior three sessions. This pattern, coupled with the July 23 hammer candle (6.69–6.89) that reversed the June–July downtrend, reinforces critical support at 6.65–6.70. Immediate resistance is observed at 7.20 (intraday high), with decisive closure above this level potentially extending gains. Secondary support resides near the June swing low of 6.16.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximately 6.41) and 100-day SMA (approximately 6.22) are ascending, with the 50-day crossing above the 200-day SMA (approximately 5.98) in early Q2 2025, forming a bullish golden cross. Current price trading above all three averages confirms a sustained uptrend. The 50-day SMA has provided dynamic support during July pullbacks, while the widening gap between the 50-day and 200-day SMA underscores strengthening momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover above the signal line, with the histogram expanding positively since mid-July, aligning with the price breakout. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (14,3) records %K at 79 and %D at 73, entering overbought territory following the surge. Although elevated KDJ levels suggest near-term consolidation risk, the MACD’s upward trajectory and bullish divergence from the July 24 low indicate underlying strength.
Bollinger Bands
The bands contracted sharply in late July (width narrowing to 0.18, -25% volatility vs June), culminating in the July 29 expansion breakout where price closed above the upper band (approximately 6.92). This volatility surge typically initiates directional moves. The midline (20-day SMA near 6.68) now offers primary support, while continued upper band proximity may signal short-term overextension if unsupported by volume.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout was validated by a 253% volume surge to 1.53M shares versus the 10-day average, marking the highest volume since the June 27 rally. Accumulation during the July 23–28 consolidation occurred on below-average volume, confirming the significance of high-volume breakouts. Divergences are absent, as volume consistently confirms price direction, including the July 23 advance (1.07M shares) and mid-June distribution phase.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approximately 65) approaches but remains below overbought territory (70), rising from oversold conditions near 30 in late June. Current positioning suggests room for further upside before technical exhaustion. Sustained levels above 60 since early July confirm bullish momentum, though traders should monitor for overbought readings coinciding with resistance tests as a contrarian signal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the primary uptrend from the August 2024 low (4.66) to the July 2025 high (7.20) yields key levels: 6.56 (23.6%), 6.23 (38.2%), and 5.93 (50%). The 23.6% retracement (6.56) aligns precisely with the July consolidation low and the 50-day SMA, creating a major confluence support zone. The price holding above 6.56 during recent pullbacks validates this level’s significance, while closure above 7.20 opens the 127.2% extension near 7.60.
Confluence and Divergence Insights
• Confluence: The 6.56–6.60 zone (23.6% Fibonacci, 50-day SMA, and July 24–28 support) forms a robust technical anchor.
• Divergence: Overbought KDJ levels contrast with the neutral RSI and rising MACD, implying consolidation may precede further upside.
• Holistic alignment of breakouts in price, volume, and volatility metrics (Bollinger expansion) supports bullish continuation, though Fibonacci extensions and prior highs warrant monitoring for profit-taking triggers near 7.20.