Nokia surges 3.93% as technical indicators point to short-term bottom

Nokia (NOK) closed the most recent session with a 3.93% gain, surging from a low of $6.60 to a high of $6.77 and settling at $6.61. This sharp reversal follows a prior session decline of 2.45%, suggesting a potential short-term bottoming process. The price action indicates a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, with the closing price above the previous session's high, signaling strong buying pressure.

Candlestick Theory

The recent session forms a strong bullish candle, with the close near the high of the range, indicating conviction in the upward move. Key support levels emerge at $6.34 (2026-01-14 low) and $6.11 (2025-12-15 low), while resistance is clustered at $6.77 (2026-01-15 high) and $6.94 (2026-01-07 high). A breakdown below $6.34 could target $6.03 (2025-11-28 low), while a breakout above $6.77 may test $7.23 (2025-11-13 high).

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (approximately $6.30–$6.40) currently aligns with the 100-day MA, suggesting a consolidating trend. The 200-day MA ($6.20–$6.30) acts as a critical long-term support. Price has recently crossed above both the 50-day and 100-day MAs, indicating a short-to-medium-term bullish bias. However, the 200-day MA remains a key psychological hurdle for sustained upward momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator (K=80, D=75, J=85) suggests overbought conditions, raising caution about near-term profit-taking. A divergence between the KDJ lines and price could signal a potential pullback, particularly if the RSI fails to confirm higher highs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the bands widening from a narrow contraction in late December 2025. The current close at $6.61 sits near the upper band, indicating stretched conditions. A reversion toward the 20-day MA ($6.45–$6.50) may occur, but the upper band’s role as dynamic resistance remains intact.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged to 49.9 million shares on the recent upsession, a 15–20% increase compared to the prior week’s average. This volume validates the price strength, suggesting institutional participation. However, a declining volume during follow-through rallies could signal waning momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at ~65–68, approaching overbought territory. While not yet above 70, the rapid ascent implies a potential correction. A close above $6.77 could push RSI into overbought levels, but caution is warranted as overbought readings often precede pullbacks rather than reversals.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 2025-10-28 ($5.45) to 2025-11-04 ($7.00) uptrend include 38.2% at $6.42 and 61.8% at $6.16. The recent close near $6.61 aligns with the 50% retracement level, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before a breakout attempt.

Confluence and Divergence
The bullish engulfing pattern, positive MACD, and volume surge create a confluence of short-term bullish signals. However, the KDJ overbought reading and RSI proximity to 70 caution against immediate follow-through. A divergence between the RSI and price—such as a lower high in RSI despite a higher price—would heighten bearish risks. The 200-day MA and Fibonacci 61.8% level ($6.16) may serve as a critical support cluster, with a break below $6.34 likely to trigger deeper correction.

Probabilistic Outlook

The near-term bias remains bullish, with a 60–70% probability of testing $6.77–$6.94 resistance. However, a 30–40% chance of a pullback to $6.34–$6.45 exists, particularly if volume wanes or RSI breaches 70. Long-term investors should monitor the 200-day MA for sustainability, while short-term traders may target the $6.77–$6.94 range with tight stop-loss placement below $6.34.