Nobel Leak Probe Intensifies as Bets Skyrocket Before Announcement

Norwegian authorities are investigating a potential information leak following a surge in bets on the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner on the prediction market Polymarket. The platform saw a dramatic shift in odds favoring Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado just hours before the official announcement, with three accounts collectively earning approximately $90,000 from the trades. The Nobel Institute, which administers the prize, has confirmed an internal review to determine whether confidential information was compromised.

The unusual betting activity began shortly after midnight Norwegian time, with Machado's odds rising from 3.6% at 6:30 p.m. to 73.5% by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 10. This spike outpaced earlier favorites such as Russian activist Yulia Navalnaya and U.S. President Donald Trump. A single account, identified as "6741," reportedly secured $53,500 in profits by placing a $921 bet when Machado's odds were between 3% and 7%. Other traders, including a user with a username referencing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, also placed large wagers, raising concerns about insider knowledge.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, stated that the betting patterns "suggest we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information." The committee announced its decision to award Machado the prize on October 6, and she was informed of the award minutes before the public announcement on October 10. The timing of the bets has intensified suspicions of a leak.

Polymarket, which has faced prior scrutiny for unregulated trading, recently secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange and re-entered the U.S. market after regulatory approval. The platform's role in the incident has reignited debates about oversight in prediction markets. Harvard economist Jason Furman highlighted the anomaly on social media, noting the "sudden spike" in Machado's odds resembled insider trading.

The investigation follows broader concerns about the integrity of prediction markets. While platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate with limited regulation, experts remain divided on whether insider trading enhances or undermines market accuracy. Robin Hanson, a proponent of prediction markets, has argued that allowing insiders to trade improves outcomes, while others, such as Dartmouth economist Eric Zitzewitz, contend it discourages public participation.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute has emphasized the importance of maintaining secrecy in its selection process. Erik Aasheim, a spokesperson, confirmed the investigation but declined to comment further. The outcome could influence future regulations for prediction markets, particularly as platforms expand their reach and attract significant investment.