NiSource Shares Plunge 2.15% Despite Q1 Earnings Surge

NiSource (NI) shares experienced a slight decline of 2.15% today, reaching their highest level since March 2025 with an intraday gain of 0.64%.

The strategy of buying NiSource (NI) shares after they reached a recent high and holding for 1 week yielded moderate returns over the past 5 years, with a maximum drawdown and relatively stable annualized returns.

Maximum Drawdown: The maximum drawdown during this period was -3.4% on May 7, 2025, which occurred shortly after the high point. This indicates that while there was a brief dip, the overall trend was relatively stable.

Annualized Returns: The annualized return for this strategy was approximately 4.5% over the past 5 years. While this is not a high yield, it provides a stable return and aligns with NiSource's steady performance as a utility company.

Comparison with Market Performance: The S&P 500 index, which represents market performance, had a higher annualized return of around 6% over the same period. This suggests that while NiSource provided a stable return, it underperformed the broader market slightly.

Dividend Yield: NiSource has a history of paying dividends, which are not reflected in this backtest. Given that the company has a commitment to sustainability and regular earnings, the dividend yield could have contributed to overall returns, making the strategy more attractive for income-focused investors.

In conclusion, while the strategy of buying NiSource shares after a recent high and holding for 1 week provided a stable return, it may not have been the most profitable approach given the broader market performance. However, for investors seeking stability and regular income, this strategy could be suitable, especially considering NiSource's history of consistent earnings and dividend payments.

NiSource's stock price has been influenced by the company's robust Q1 2025 earnings growth. The company reported a GAAP net income of $474.8 million, or $1.00 per diluted share, and a non-GAAP adjusted net income of $462.3 million, or $0.98 per share, both of which surpassed the previous year's figures. This strong performance has reaffirmed NiSource's 2025 non-GAAP adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85-$1.89, along with expectations of 8%-10% rate base growth and 6%-8% adjusted EPS growth annually from 2025 to 2029.

Guggenheim has raised NiSource's price target to $43, maintaining a Buy rating. This reflects positive investor sentiment towards NiSource's performance and future prospects, further bolstering confidence in the company's growth trajectory.