Nisource Shares Drop 3.58% as Bearish Technical Indicators Signal Deepening Downtrend

Nisource (NI) closed at $45.02 on 2026-03-20, marking a 3.58% decline. This sharp drop aligns with a bearish candlestick pattern, suggesting potential exhaustion of upward momentum. Key support levels are emerging near $44.67 (the low of the recent session) and $43.41 (a prior consolidation level), while resistance is clustered around $46.62–$47.16. The breakdown below the $46.62 support, which had previously acted as a magnet for buying interest, raises concerns about a deeper correction.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action features a large bearish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating rejection at higher levels. A potential "bearish engulfing" pattern may be forming as the prior small bullish candles are absorbed by the recent decline. Critical support at $44.67 could trigger further selling if breached, while a rebound above $46.69 might reinvigorate short-term buyers.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (~$44.80) and 200-day MA (~$43.70) are converging, with the price now trading below both, confirming a bearish bias. The 100-day MA (~$44.50) offers a near-term reference for potential support. A cross above the 50-day MA could signal a short-term rebound, but sustained momentum above the 200-day MA would be required to validate a trend reversal.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the line crossing below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. The KDJ indicator shows the J-line dipping below the D-line, suggesting oversold conditions. However, the RSI remains in overbought territory (~62), highlighting a divergence between momentum and price. This discrepancy may delay a meaningful bounce despite the KDJ’s bearish exhaustion signal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded as the price approaches the lower band (~$44.30). The bands’ contraction in early March (~$46.50–$47.10) preceded the recent breakout, suggesting the current move could continue until reaching the 2σ lower boundary. A rebound near $44.30 might trigger a consolidation phase, but a break below this level could extend the decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $43.41.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent 3.58% drop occurred on elevated volume (~5.94M shares), validating the bearish move. However, volume has been inconsistent in recent sessions, with the March 13–19 period showing mixed volume profiles. This suggests that while the current decline is supported, further selling may face diminishing participation if the price remains below $46.62.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI (~58) remains in neutral territory, with no immediate overbought/oversold signals. However, a drop below 50 would strengthen the bearish case, particularly if accompanied by a breakdown below $44.67. A divergence between RSI and price action (e.g., RSI stabilizing while the price continues to fall) could hint at a potential short-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the March 13 high ($47.95) and March 20 low ($45.02) include 23.6% at $46.83, 38.2% at $46.21, and 61.8% at $44.93. The price’s current proximity to the 61.8% level (~$44.93) suggests a potential support zone. A break below this would target the 78.6% retracement at $44.30, aligning with the Bollinger Band analysis.

Confluence and Divergences
The bearish confluence is strong: candlestick patterns, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands all support a continuation of the downtrend. However, the KDJ and RSI suggest oversold conditions, creating a potential divergence that could delay further declines. Traders should monitor the $44.67 support level for signs of a bounce or breakdown.

Probabilistic Outlook

While the technical setup favors a test of $44.30–$43.41, a rebound from these levels is likely if the RSI stabilizes and volume diminishes. A close above $46.69 would be required to invalidate the bearish scenario and re-establish a bullish bias.