NiSource Keeps 2026 EPS at $2.02-$2.07-but Its 9%-10% 2033 Target Is the Real Story

NiSource kept 2026 steady while lifting the long-term target

NiSource kept this year's target conservative at a 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07, but the bigger shift was in the long-range outlook. In the same update, management raised its target to a 9%-10% CAGR from 2026 through 2033, up from the 8%-9% CAGR it cited last February.

That is the real debate. The near-term guidance still looks measured, but the higher long-term target asks investors to believe that data-center demand and related capital spending can sustain a faster earnings pace for the next several years.

What changed in NiSource's 2026 update

The raise does not look like a pure narrative push. Management tied the higher target to ongoing demand from large customers, including new and expanded work with Alphabet and Amazon, while reaffirming the broader investment plan that includes strategic data-center infrastructure spending. For investors, the key question is whether that spending can translate into durable earnings and rate-base growth rather than just a more compelling story.

A useful part of that read-through is the reporting split. Base plan adjusted EPS excludes data-center operations and development activity, while consolidated adjusted EPS includes them. That makes it easier to track how much of NiSource's growth comes from the regulated base and how much is coming from the newer data-center engine.

The near-term case still rests on regulated stability

NiSource is not a speculative utility chasing a trend. It remains one of the largest fully-regulated utility companies in the United States, with a large regulated gas and electric footprint. That matters because the company does not need data-center development to succeed immediately in order to remain investable.

The near-term target still reflects about 8% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, which is disciplined rather than aggressive. That gives NiSource a relatively solid floor even if the market takes time to fully price the data-center upside.

Recent results support the execution case

The more practical bull case is not AI hype. It is execution within a regulated framework.

The earnings trend is constructive

NiSource delivered 2025 non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $1.90, up from $1.75 the prior year, and reaffirmed its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07. First-quarter consolidated adjusted EPS also improved to $1.06 from $0.98 a year earlier. That does not prove the 9%-10% target will be easy to hit, but it does show a business that is still moving in the right direction.

Why data-center demand matters for earnings power

The mechanism is straightforward: data-center demand can lead to more capital investment, more rate base, and more regulated returns over time. Management has pointed to roughly $1.4 billion in customer value tied to Alphabet and Amazon-related work, while its broader plan calls for about $28.0 billion from 2026 to 2030, including nearly $7.0 billion in strategic data-center infrastructure investments.

If that spending enters the regulated framework as expected, NiSource can support faster earnings growth without suddenly behaving like a cyclical tech name.

What investors should watch next

The higher target looks more credible if three things keep happening: base-plan earnings remain stable, consolidated results continue to outperform the base plan as data-center activity ramps, and capital spending keeps entering rate base in the way management expects. If those signals hold, the raise from 8%-9% to 9%-10% starts to look earned rather than merely optimistic.