NioCorp's Elk Creek Project: A Strategic Pillar in Securing U.S. Critical Minerals Independence

In the wake of escalating geopolitical tensions and China's tightening grip on global rare earth and critical mineral supply chains, the United States faces a stark reality: it imports 80% of its rare earth elements, with 56% of these sourced directly from China. This dependency is not merely economic—it is existential. From the production of advanced military systems to the manufacturing of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies, the U.S. is increasingly exposed to supply chain vulnerabilities. Enter NioCorp's Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project, a $2.8 billion pre-tax net present value (NPV) venture poised to redefine the nation's strategic autonomy in critical minerals.

The Geopolitical Imperative

China's dominance in the rare earth sector is unparalleled. It controls 85% of global refined light rare earth production and 100% of heavy rare earth refining. The U.S., despite being the second-largest rare earth ore producer in 2024, lacks the domestic infrastructure to refine these raw materials into usable components. For instance, in 2024, the U.S. produced just 1.3 kilotons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal alloy—a fraction of China's output—while China's production of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, essential for electric vehicles and defense systems, reached 240–260 kilotons annually. This imbalance has been exploited, with China recently imposing export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets, underscoring the urgency for U.S. self-sufficiency.

NioCorp's Elk Creek Project addresses this crisis head-on. Located in Southeast Nebraska, the project is North America's only niobium/scandium/titanium operation and houses the second-largest rare earth resource in the U.S. It is designed to produce niobium (critical for high-strength steel), scandium (used in aerospace-grade alloys), titanium (essential for industrial and medical applications), and magnetic rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. These materials are foundational to U.S. national security and technological leadership.

Economic and Operational Strength

The project's financials are compelling. A 2022 feasibility study projected a 29.2% pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) and an average annual EBITDA of $403 million over 38 years. While a revised feasibility study is underway to secure $800 million in debt financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, NioCorp has already secured all necessary permits, making the project “shovel-ready.” A 9-hole drilling campaign in 2025 is converting indicated resources into measured reserves, bolstering the project's credibility for investors and financiers.

The company's commitment to sustainability further enhances its appeal. Elk Creek employs zero process water discharge, reagent recycling, and tailings as underground mine backfill—aligning with the Equator Principles and ensuring independent ESG auditing. This approach not only mitigates environmental risks but also aligns with global decarbonization trends, a critical factor for long-term investment viability.

Strategic Risks and Mitigation

The primary risk lies in financing. While the EXIM Bank loan application is a major step, delays or rejections could stall construction. However, NioCorp has diversified its funding strategy, raising $45 million via a public offering in July 2025 and leveraging partnerships with engineering firms like Dahrouge Geological Consulting and Zachry. Additionally, the project's geopolitical urgency—highlighted by China's export curbs—has galvanized U.S. policymakers to prioritize domestic critical mineral production, increasing the likelihood of regulatory and financial support.

Investment Thesis

For investors, Elk Creek represents a convergence of strategic necessity and economic opportunity. The project's potential to produce rare earths and niobium—both of which are classified as critical to U.S. security—positions NioCorp as a key beneficiary of the Biden administration's push to de-risk supply chains. With a 38-year mine life and a focus on high-demand minerals, the project offers long-term cash flow visibility. Moreover, NioCorp's recent inclusion in major indices and its $45 million capital raise signal growing institutional confidence.

Conclusion

NioCorp's Elk Creek Project is not just a mining operation—it is a linchpin in the U.S. strategy to counter China's stranglehold on critical minerals. By producing niobium, rare earths, and other defense-critical materials, the project addresses a national security imperative while offering robust financial returns. For investors, the combination of geopolitical tailwinds, a strong feasibility profile, and a sustainable operational framework makes Elk Creek a compelling long-term bet. As the U.S. races to build a resilient supply chain, NioCorp stands at the forefront of this transformation.