NIO Stock Plunges on L90 Launch Jitters as $430M Volume Ranks 251st in Market Activity

NIO fell 8.18% on August 4, with a trading volume of $430 million, ranking 251st in market activity. The decline followed mixed signals from its Onvo L90 SUV launch, despite strong pre-orders and production readiness. NIO disclosed over 20,000 units were allocated for the initial batch, though backend system crashes highlighted unmet demand exceeding expectations. CEO William Li emphasized scaling test-drive fleets to 1,000 vehicles nationwide and targeted 7,000 August deliveries for the model.

Analysts from Macquarie and Citi forecasted monthly deliveries of 8,000–12,000 units for the L90, citing its competitive pricing and positioning against rivals like Li Auto’s i8. However, Firefly, NIO’s sub-brand, reported a 39.8% July sales drop to 2,366 units due to production constraints, raising concerns about capacity challenges. NIO reiterated its Q4 break-even goal, with Onvo’s growth expected to offset Firefly’s weakness, though delivery timelines for the L90’s six-seat variant remain at 4–6 weeks.

Strategic upgrades from Macquarie and a production acceleration timeline outlined by NIO CEO Li signaled confidence in the L90’s market potential. Nevertheless, the stock’s sharp decline suggests investor skepticism about meeting ambitious sales targets amid broader EV sector volatility. The company’s legal actions against PR critics and expanded test-drive availability further underscore its focus on stabilizing brand perception and order conversion rates.

Backtesting of a high-volume trading strategy from 2022 to present showed a 166.71% return, outperforming the benchmark by 137.53%. This highlights liquidity-driven momentum as a key short-term performance driver, though long-term sustainability remains tied to execution against production and delivery commitments.