Nio Stock Outlook Ahead of Q2 Earnings: Buy or Hold?

Nio is set to report Q2 2025 earnings on September 2, with shares up 45% YTD due to new product launches and price cuts. Analysts expect a loss per share of $0.31 and sales of $2.73 billion. Despite overhangs like China's sluggish economy and fierce EV competition, JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai has upgraded Nio to Buy with a $8 price target, forecasting deliveries to rise 50% in 2025 and 47% in 2026. Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating with an average price target of $5.01.

NIO Inc., a leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, is set to release its second-quarter 2025 earnings on September 2. The company's shares have surged 45% year-to-date (YTD) due to new product launches and price cuts, despite the broader challenges posed by China's sluggish economy and intense competition in the EV market.

Analysts expect NIO to report a loss per share of $0.31 and sales of $2.73 billion for the quarter [1]. However, the outlook for the company has significantly improved, with JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai upgrading NIO to a "Buy" rating with a price target of $8.00. This upgrade comes on the heels of the bank's addition of NIO to its "Positive Catalyst Watch" list, citing several potential drivers, including NIO's Q2 earnings, the final purchase pricing of the third-generation ES8 SUV, and the company's annual Nio Day event on September 20 [2].

Nick Lai projects NIO's deliveries to rise 50% in 2025 and 47% in 2026, attributing the expected growth to the company's expanding product portfolio, including the Onvo L80 and L90 SUVs. Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating with an average price target of $5.01, reflecting growing confidence in NIO's growth prospects [1].

Despite the positive analyst sentiment, NIO faces several headwinds. The company's recent deliveries have fallen short of expectations, with only 135,167 vehicles delivered in the first seven months of 2025, up just 25.2% year over year [2]. Moreover, the company needs to deliver nearly 305,000 vehicles between August and December to meet its annual target of 334,000 vehicles.

Nevertheless, NIO's strategic moves, such as expanding its battery swap network and developing new models under its Onvo and Firefly brands, position the company for long-term growth. The company's ability to maintain a strong balance sheet, with a cash position of $3.6 billion and a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 75%, also supports its growth prospects [1].

In conclusion, NIO Inc.'s Q2 2025 earnings report will be closely watched by investors and analysts alike. The company's strategic initiatives and expanding product portfolio, coupled with positive analyst sentiment, suggest that NIO is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing EV market in China and beyond.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-li-chinese-ev-stock-121600170.html
[2] https://eletric-vehicles.com/nio/jpmorgan-adds-nio-to-positive-catalyst-watch-upgrades-pt-and-rating/