NIO Shares Slide 3.01% Amid 231st Trading Volume Rank But Climb Over 50% Year-to-Date as Analysts Diverge on Earnings Outlook

NIO (NIO) closed down 3.01% on September 4, with a trading volume of $0.44 billion, reflecting a 21.09% decline from the previous day’s volume and ranking 231st in market activity. The stock has surged over 50% year-to-date, reversing four consecutive years of losses, driven by strong execution and optimism around Chinese equities.

The company’s Q2 2025 earnings revealed mixed results, with $2.65 billion in revenue—a 9% year-over-year increase but below the $2.73 billion estimate. Vehicle margins declined sequentially, and the adjusted loss per share of $0.32 exceeded expectations. Despite these challenges, NIO provided upbeat guidance, forecasting Q4 deliveries of 150,000 units, up from 72,056 in Q2, and gross margins of 16–17%, compared to 10.3% in Q2. Management reiterated a Q4 breakeven target on adjusted profits.

Analyst sentiment remains divided. US Tiger Securities raised NIO’s target to $8, Mizuho to $6, and JPMorgan upgraded it to “Overweight.” However, Freedom Broker downgraded its rating to “Hold” while raising the price target to $6.50, citing weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance. The stock currently trades above its $4.86 mean target price, supported by strong demand for new models like the L90 and ES8, which delivered 10,575 units in August.

Backtesting indicates NIO’s stock has gained over 50% in 2025, trading at a forward P/S ratio of 1.07x. If the company meets its Q4 delivery and margin targets, the stock could continue its upward trajectory despite ongoing price war pressures in China’s EV market.