Nio vs. Alibaba: Which Chinese Stock Offers More Upside Ahead of Earnings?

Nio and Alibaba are two Chinese stocks drawing investor attention. Nio's shares are up 54% YTD, driven by new product launches and aggressive pricing. Alibaba, China's largest e-commerce and cloud-services company, has gained 49% YTD due to strong growth in AI-powered cloud services. Wall Street expects Nio to report a loss per share of $0.31 on revenues of $2.73 billion in Q2 2025. Alibaba's Q4 2025 earnings are expected on May 10, with a consensus estimate of $0.97 per share.

Nio and Alibaba, two prominent Chinese stocks, have been drawing significant investor attention in recent months. Nio Inc. (NIO) has seen its shares surge by 54% year-to-date (YTD), driven primarily by new product launches and an aggressive pricing strategy. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), China's largest e-commerce and cloud-services company, has experienced a 49% YTD increase, fueled by robust growth in AI-powered cloud services.

Nio Inc. (NIO)

Nio's stock price surged 6.5% to $5.90 following the unveiling of its new ES8 SUV, a flagship premium vehicle priced at $43,000 with a battery subscription. The ES8 undercuts Tesla's Model YL by over $4,000 and offers quick battery replacements through subscription services. Despite financial challenges, Nio's growth metrics appear promising, with a 31.3% revenue growth over the past five years and 222,000 EVs sold in 2024. The upcoming financial update on September 2 is anticipated as a potential catalyst for the stock [1].

Nio's aggressive pricing strategy is aimed at competing with established players like Tesla. The ES8, the largest electric SUV made in China, is positioned as a "full-scenario technology flagship SUV" and is set to enter an increasingly crowded six-seat SUV segment [3]. However, Nio faces intense competition in the domestic market, with rivals such as Tesla and Li Auto also expanding their product lines. The company's recent delivery slowdown, with July deliveries falling to 21,017 units from 24,925 in June, highlights the ongoing challenge to stabilize sales momentum while launching new products [5].

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)

Alibaba is set to report its Q1 FY26 earnings on August 29, with analysts expecting $2.06 per share and $35.35 billion in revenues. The stock has already jumped 47% year-to-date, driven by strength in its AI-driven cloud business and growing momentum in fast delivery services. Analysts project solid top-line growth in the first quarter, though profit margins may face pressure due to ongoing investments [2].

The company's strategic focus on cloud and e-commerce growth, particularly its AI services, is bolstering investor confidence. Alibaba's recent expansion into South Korea, Mexico, and Thailand further underscores its commitment to meeting demand. The company's advancements in AI, including its open-source model Qwen3-Coder, are gaining traction, positioning it as a key player in the AI space and potentially driving future stock performance [1]. Despite challenges such as a significant RMB 50 billion investment and higher spending in instant commerce, analysts remain optimistic about Alibaba's stock, with a price target suggesting a 25% upside potential [1].

Upcoming Financial Updates

Wall Street expects Nio to report a loss per share of $0.31 on revenues of $2.73 billion in Q2 2025. Alibaba's Q4 2025 earnings are expected on May 10, with a consensus estimate of $0.97 per share. These upcoming financial updates are anticipated to provide further insights into the financial health and growth prospects of both companies.

References

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/nio-shares-pop-after-releasing-one-of-its-most-affordable-suvs-yet.html
[2] https://www.tipranks.com/news/weekend-updates/alibabas-stock-set-for-growth-amid-ai-and-cloud-expansion
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-stock-soars-further-suv-145700003.html
[4] https://www.investopedia.com/nio-stock-soars-further-on-suv-challenge-to-tesla-model-y-l-11795835
[5] https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/08/47279394/nio-ceo-says-survival-matters-most-as-company-bets-on-aggressive-pricing-for-new-es8