Nintendo’s Switch 2 Launch: Can 15 Million Sales Outpace Its Predecessor?

Nintendo’s announcement of a 14.7 million unit sales target for the Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025 has set the stage for a critical test of the company’s ability to sustain growth in an increasingly competitive handheld gaming market. The new console, launching June 5, 2025, faces both tailwinds and headwinds as it seeks to build on the original Switch’s legacy—over 146 million units sold since its 2017 debut.

A High Bar, but a Familiar Starting Line

The original Switch sold 13.4 million units in its first nine months on the market (2017), a figure the Switch 2 aims to surpass by nearly 10% in its full first year. This ambition is grounded in a robust existing user base: Nintendo reported 105 million active Switch consoles by late 2024, a loyal audience primed to upgrade. Backward compatibility with all existing games—though with potential performance trade-offs—adds to the Switch 2’s appeal, as does exclusive titles like Mario Kart World, which could drive holiday sales.

The Pandemic Boost and Its Legacy

The original Switch’s trajectory was turbocharged by pandemic-era demand, with sales peaking at 22.4 million units in 2020–2021. Omdia analysts caution that the Switch 2 may struggle to match such heights, as post-pandemic normalization has already dampened console sales across the industry. Yet Nintendo’s dominance in handheld gaming remains unshaken: it commands an estimated 85% share of the market in 2025, with competitors like the Steam Deck and PlayStation Portal failing to dislodge its position.

Hardware Upgrades and Software Strengths

The Switch 2’s improvements—enhanced graphics via DLSS technology, a larger screen, and more durable magnetic Joy-Con attachments—are aimed at addressing criticisms of its predecessor’s design and performance. However, its success hinges equally on software. The Switch ecosystem’s library of first-party franchises (Mario, Zelda, Animal Crossing) is unmatched in its ability to retain players. With backward compatibility intact, the Switch 2 could also attract new users drawn to older hits like Animal Crossing: New Horizons, which sold 36 million copies during the pandemic.

The Elephant in the Room: Competition and Saturation

While Nintendo’s market share remains strong, Omdia notes that handheld gaming is a smaller, slower-growing segment compared to traditional consoles or PC gaming. The Steam Deck, priced similarly to the Switch 2 at $399, has already captured 10% of the market with its PC compatibility, a feature Nintendo lacks. Meanwhile, the PlayStation Portal’s focus on full PS5 backward compatibility poses a direct threat to Nintendo’s core audience. Investors must weigh these risks against Nintendo’s brand loyalty and the Switch 2’s unique value proposition as a “carry-anywhere” hybrid console.

The Bottom Line: A Conservative Start, But Long-Term Potential

At 14.7 million units, the Switch 2’s 2025 sales target is conservative by Nintendo’s own history—lower than the original’s pandemic-fueled peak, but still a solid opening. The real test will come in years three and four, when Omdia expects sales to dip compared to the original’s post-pandemic decline. Yet the Switch 2’s backward compatibility and software pipeline position it to capitalize on Nintendo’s 105 million active users, many of whom will eventually upgrade.

Nintendo’s valuation, however, remains a hurdle. At a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28x (vs. the industry average of 22x), investors are already pricing in Switch 2 success. A miss on the 14.7 million target could trigger a sell-off, while exceeding it could push shares higher.

Conclusion: A Balanced Bet on Nintendo’s Future

The Switch 2’s 14.7 million sales target is achievable, but its long-term success depends on sustaining user engagement beyond the initial upgrade cycle. Nintendo’s 85% market share, unmatched software library, and the Switch 2’s design improvements give it a clear path to outperform competitors. However, investors should remain cautious of saturation in the handheld market and the risk of overestimating pandemic-era demand’s return.

With 105 million active users and a franchise library that rivals any in gaming, Nintendo has the foundation to make the Switch 2 a success. The question now is whether it can convert that legacy into a new era of growth—and deliver returns that justify its premium valuation. The answer will begin to unfold on June 5.