Nillion/Tether Reverses at 0.049 Amid Diverging Volume and Momentum

Summary
• Nillion/Tether tested key resistance at 0.0488 before retracting, forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the 03:00–04:00 ET window, coinciding with a 2.8% price drop.
• RSI reached overbought levels twice, but failed to confirm strong bullish momentum.
• Volume surged near 0.049, suggesting accumulation before the sell-off.
• Bollinger Band contraction in late 17:00 ET preceded the breakout and subsequent reversal.

Market Overview

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.0461 on 2026-02-06 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.0500, a low of 0.0456, and closed at 0.0468 as of 2026-02-07 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 10,001,537.6, with a notional turnover of 486,357.72 USD.

Price Action and Structure

The 24-hour candlestick data revealed a strong bullish attempt during the early hours, with a sharp rally pushing the price to 0.0500 at 03:00 ET. This level acted as a temporary ceiling, where a bearish reversal occurred, forming a classic bearish engulfing pattern. Key support emerged around 0.0463–0.0465, where the price found a floor on three separate occasions. The 0.0488 level also showed resistance, with multiple failed attempts to break above this zone.

Momentum and Indicators

The RSI indicator showed overbought conditions during the rally but failed to confirm strong bullish momentum, as the price did not maintain those levels. MACD showed a bearish crossover late in the session, aligning with the price drop. Bollinger Bands contracted during the 17:00–19:00 ET window before expanding, indicating a potential breakout that instead turned into a reversal.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked at key resistance levels, notably at 0.049 and 0.0488, suggesting accumulation and distribution activity. Notably, the price rally during the early hours was supported by a strong volume surge, whereas the subsequent sell-off occurred with lower turnover, pointing to a potential shift in sentiment. Turnover and price action moved in tandem during the first half of the session but diverged in the latter half, indicating weakening conviction in the bullish trend.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracements

Volatility increased sharply after 03:00 ET as the price dropped from 0.0500 to below 0.0480 within an hour. The move found a natural retracement level at 0.0488, where 61.8% of the previous upward leg aligned with a key psychological threshold. The price remained below the 50-period moving average for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish tone.

The market appears to be consolidating after the recent volatility, with key support and resistance levels in focus. A potential retest of 0.0463–0.0465 could trigger further downside, while a break above 0.049 may offer limited near-term relief. Investors should remain cautious of potential short-term volatility and divergences in momentum indicators.