Nillion/Tether Market Overview

Summary

• • •• Price fell sharply from 0.1850 to 0.1745 before recovering to 0.1858.• Strong volume driven by long liquidation and subsequent short covering.• RSI overbought at 75+; MACD bullish divergence confirmed.• Volatility expanded during drawdown, with price near upper Bollinger Band.• 0.1830–0.1850 is critical near-term support/resistance range.

Market Overview

Nillion/Tether (NILUSDT) opened at 0.1841 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1841 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.1897 and a low of 0.1739 within the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was approximately 14,719,572.9, with a notional turnover of roughly $2,709,542.20.

The session was defined by a sharp bearish selloff from 0.1850 to 0.1745 before a sharp rally into the final 12 hours, driven by significant volume surges. This suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, as shorts appeared to be covered and longs re-entered the market during the recovery phase.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a clear bearish impulse from 0.1850 to 0.1739, with a sharp reversal into a bullish correction. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern around 0.1750 and multiple hammers during the recovery phase. Key resistance appears at 0.1850–0.1860, while 0.1830 and 0.1800 are strong supports. A doji near 0.1840 also signals indecision.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed over into bullish territory during the last 6 hours, suggesting a short-term reversal. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart remains above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded during the 0.1745 to 0.1858 rally, with price now near the upper band — a potential overbought signal.

Momentum and Divergences

The RSI reached overbought territory (75+) during the late recovery phase, suggesting a potential pullback. However, there was a bullish divergence in the MACD — a sign that momentum is aligning with the price rally. The histogram turned positive and widened during the final 4 hours, reinforcing the idea of renewed bullish pressure.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the key reversal phase, with over 488,505.2 contracts traded during the 071500–073000 ET period when price jumped from 0.1875 to 0.1916. This volume confirmed the strength of the bullish move. In contrast, turnover during the initial bearish leg showed a divergence — volume did not increase proportionally with price declines — suggesting weaker bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels played an important role. The 61.8% retracement of the 0.1850–0.1739 move (~0.1780–0.1790) served as a strong support zone during the rally. Price bounced off this level multiple times before surging upward. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the broader downtrend (~0.1790) also held as a psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

To develop a concrete backtesting strategy, we first need to define the swing structure that generates the 61.8% retracement levels. A logical approach would be to use the most recent confirmed swing high/low since the last position close, ensuring the signals remain adaptive to current market structure. We can focus on long entries only when price retraces down to the 61.8% level of a prior bullish swing. To avoid overtrading, we should take only the first 15-minute bar that touches the level, avoiding multiple entries on the same retracement. For exits, we can use a first close above 0.1850 as a clean, timestamped trigger. If the target is never reached, a stop-loss or time limit (e.g., 24 hours) should be imposed to manage risk. Once these parameters are set, we can run a full backtest over the specified data range to evaluate the strategy’s performance.